After a rough 2009, mobile CAPEX likely to grow in 2010

SINGAPORE: After a rough two years, mobile operators will look to increase their capital expenditure on improving their networks in 2010. ABI Research expects mobile CAPEX to grow by more than 4 percent YoY in 2010, after contracting by 2.7 percent in 2009.

Driving this growth will be investments in 3.5G technologies such as HSPA and HSPA+, along with the rollout of 4G LTE networks by large operators such Verizon Wireless and Telia Sonera. The fastest growths in capital expenditures are expected to be in South America, with a CAGR of 10 percent between 2009 and 2015.

Aggregate service revenue also bounced back in 2009, which will help fund the operators’ CAPEX plans in 2010. Globally, mobile service revenues grew 5.9 percent YoY between 3Q 2009 and 3Q 2008. The rapid growth in the use of mobile data services drove an 8.8 percent growth of service revenues in North America in the same period.

”The rapid adoption of smartphones will drive service revenue growth in 2010, as more consumers adopt data plans to take advantage of their handsets’ features,” says analyst Bhavya Khanna.

Developed markets such as North America and Western Europe saw more than 17 percent YoY growth in mobile Internet revenues, a trend that is likely to continue into 2010. Smartphone sales were brisk in 2009, even as the overall shipment of handsets dropped.

“The growing popularity of Internet-capable handsets will drive the increasing adoption of mobile data among consumers,” adds vice president and CRO Stuart Carlaw. “ABI Research forecasts mobile Internet service revenues to grow at a CAGR of 9.4 percent between 2009 and 2015.”