Smartphone performance leaps forward, leaving Nokia flat-footed

Tim Renowden, Analyst, Ovum

AUSTRALIA: Ovum's latest Smartphone capability tracker: 1Q09-4Q09 demonstrates that smartphone manufacturers are embracing more powerful hardware capable of handling advanced graphics and video processing, with the transition from ARM11-based processors to ARM Cortex A8 and Qualcomm Snapdragon chipsets now seriously under way.

However, Nokia appears to be lagging behind the performance curve, with this tracker highlighting a specification gap opening between it and rivals. Other major developments are the growth in pre-installed app stores, while the foundations are being laid for rich Internet application (RIA) framework adoption in 2010.

Performance gains are driven by new chipsets
Although handsets based on ARM Cortex A8 chipsets have been available since mid-2009, we are now seeing a significant number of handsets based on this architecture and on Qualcomm's competing Snapdragon platform.

Both of these platforms include hardware acceleration of graphics and video tasks, enabling richer multimedia experiences such as high-definition (HD) video, 3D games, richer graphical user interfaces and, later this year, support for Adobe Flash 10 for richer web browsing and Flash content.

Nokia's flagship hardware is underpowered compared to rivals
Extra hardware grunt provides a significant boost to user experience, but Nokia is struggling to keep pace with its rivals in this respect, with only the niche N900 handset sporting a next-generation chipset.

Clock speed isn't everything (efficient software plays a big role in overall usability) but the majority of Nokia's current smartphones - including the flagship N97 and N97 mini - run on ARM11 at below 500MHz, with an anemic 128MB of RAM: a point that most other platforms have abandoned.

Nokia's mainstream models are lagging significantly behind the cutting edge: the current market high-end is a Snapdragon chipset at 1GHz, with 448MB of RAM (the HTC HD2), and other manufacturers are queuing up to announce handsets with equivalent specifications. Nokia's lack of recent product announcements gives us little cause to think the hardware specification gap will improve in the short term.

Another area where Nokia is struggling is screen resolution and technology. Of the 20 handsets with highest screen resolution, Nokia has just one - again, the N900. Its touchscreen handsets typically use resistive screens rather than the capacitive type favored by most consumers, and it is the only major manufacturer still producing multiple smartphones in the candy bar/numeric keypad form factor.

Nokia is clearly focusing on pushing its current S60 platform further down its range where it can ship high volumes (and S60 does run on lower-end hardware than competing smartphone platforms), but the forthcoming release of the Symbian^3 platform (and associated new hardware in 2H10) can't come quickly enough for Nokia.

Android handsets proliferate as manufacturers climb on the bandwagon
In the previous (4Q08-3Q09) tracker iteration, there were four Android handsets from two manufacturers. One quarter later, there are 13 handsets from six manufacturers, ranging from high-end (Motorola Droid/Milestone) to mid-range (Huawei T-Mobile Pulse) devices.

The baseline specification for Android devices is a 528MHz ARM11 CPU and 256MB of RAM, suggesting it can't push as far down the range as the S60. But the emergence of Android devices based on Cortex A8 and Snapdragon chipsets in early 2010 will keep enthusiasm for Android high, and Ovum expects the proliferation of Android handsets to continue this year (the arrival of Cortex A5 chipsets will help drive Android lower down the range).

Application stores have gained momentum
Sixty-five percent of handsets launched in the last 12 months had an app store at launch. It will be no surprise to anyone that application stores are now a “must-have” feature, and this is reflected in the strong growth in pre-installed application stores.

This figure will almost certainly increase rapidly to near 100 percent within the first half of 2010, as all major players now consider easy access to third-party applications as a key requirement.

RIA frameworks set to take off this year
As higher-performing hardware becomes the norm, we expect adoption of RIA runtimes to increase significantly in 2H10, including Flash 10 and Silverlight. The fuller version of Flash will replace Flash Lite where hardware permits.

Silverlight will gain a foothold with the new batch of Windows Phone 7 series devices, launching towards the end of 2010. Qt has finally emerged via the Nokia N900, but its use will remain low until the arrival of Symbian^3 handsets in the second half of 2010.