Top 10 technology predictions for 2009: Deloitte

Deloitte recently came out with its TMT (telecom, media and technology) predictions for 2009. Here are some bits from the technology predictions for 2009. May I take this opportunity to thank V. Srikumar, partner, Deloitte Haskins & Sells, for sharing this study.

1. Making every electron count: the rise of the SmartGrid.
Major manufacturers and utilities should explore partnerships with, and consider acquisitions of smart energy companies, advises Deloitte. SmartGrid technologies have the potential to reduce up to 30 percent of electricity consumption and dramatically reduce the need to construct new power plants or operate environmentally harmful sources of generation. They also bring computer intelligence and networking to the electrical network. SmartGrid also allows for more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. Is there room for nuclear power? Possibly, yes!

2. Gadgets for free* (*subject to contract)
According to Deloitte, bundling products and services together may prove essential in 2009 to stimulate an otherwise nervous, stalled market. This approach may well become pervasive in 2009, and likely be extended to a wide range of devices, including TV (bundled with subscriptions), music equipment (bundled with music), and high-end computers (bundled with everything -- from technical support to remote back-up services).

3. Disrupting the PC: the rise of the netbook.
Even since the introduction of the Intel Atom processos, netbooks and mobile Internet devices have gained momentum -- at least, in print and web. Sony's pocket device only adds to the glamour. According to Deloitte, the appeal of netbooks has been categorized as making 'great second computers for normal people, third computers for techies, and the first computer for children.' Even carriers should consider adding netbook subsidies into their current cash-flow estimates. They should also analyze the impact of wireless data usage on their networks -- driven by netbooks.

4. Moore's Law and risk.
A corollary to the famous law is applied to the falling prices for digital storage and the rise in the types and speeds of communication networks. However, these have combined to add to the corresponding risk associated with information leakage and data theft. Even a small memory stick can hold volumes of data! Companies could probably never realize that their data has gone missing or that intruders were regularly accessing their networks. Loss of analog data and need to secure analog copies should not be overlooked as well.

5. The common sense of green and lean IT.
Green IT, perhaps, the most misused IT term of this year and the past! Nevertheless, the Deloitte study, in 2009, the aggregate volume of the world’s data centers is likely to continue to grow, albeit possibly at a slower pace than in previous years. The efficiency of data centers is, however, likely to vary considerably. The latest, purpose-built data-centers should attain a power-unit effectiveness (PUE) rating of 1.2 or better. A typical enterprise data-center is likely to achieve a PUE of 2.0 or worse. Energy consumption for IT should be linked to the overall approach to energy for a company. All departments can have a role to play in making technology more efficient, by applying some common sense.

6. Downsizing the digital attic.
The ever growing danger of digital storage is the fact that users continue to assume that storage space is infinite (just as we do with our possessions). Companies should assess whether their total cost of storage is growing faster than revenues, and if so, whether this is beneficial to them and enterprises should review all aspects of digital data use and management, advises Deloitte. An option could be off-site storage. However, companies would also need to monitor both costs and regulatory implications.

7. Generic becomes the 'IT' brand.
In 2009, we could well find companies and consumers actively seeking out unbranded or relatively unknown technology brands on the basis that they are good enough and, more importantly, significantly cheaper! For the established brands, dropping prices may increase sales in the short-term, but might cheapen a brand’s image in the long term. How good would these alternative suppliers be? Deloitte feels that using alternative suppliers is likely to require users to become familiar with a new interface, perhaps causing a drag on productivity. Enterprises should look at approaches of minimizing this disruption, for example through the use of digital skins that mimic interfaces and appearances that users are more familiar with.

8. The digital ambulance chaser gets supercharged.
According to Deloitte, digital litigation may prove recession proof, or even counter-cyclical, in 2009. All companies involved with digital products and services should be wary of unwittingly being caught out by the legislation related to digital infractions -- whether committed against a consumer, an employee, an acquisition, a partner or another business. Even technology companies should constantly monitor how consumers actually use their digital products and services and whether this may create legal issues, advises Deloitte.

9. Social networks in the enterprise: Facebook for the Fortune 500.
Again, on social networks and the enterprise. According to Deloitte, it seems as though 2009 could be the breakout year for social networks in the enterprise. Internal and external spending on social networking solutions from IT providers and carriers may approach $500 million. Social networks are likely to be considered an inexpensive solution in what is likely to be a financially constrained IT spending environment. Perhaps, telcos and IT solutions providers also need to invest in ESN and develop the expertise and credibility to deploy these solutions if or when they become more broadly adopted, and start becoming a more significant source of revenues.

10. Sinners become saints.
This is an interesting observation, where Deloitte looks at genetically modified (GM) foods. The need to feed people, coupled with the need to conserve water, is likely to prompt a re-evaluation of GM foods. Nevertheless, it advises that governments should take a lead on investigating, understanding and communicating the various solutions available for addressing the world’s key sustainability challenges. "In 2009 it may even be considered virtuous to create dishes comprising GM ingredients, packaged in plastic, in kitchens powered by nuclear fuel," adds Deloitte.

Top 10 tech trends likely to make waves in 2008

It is quite a task to predict what the New Year has in store for us. My friend Radhika Nallayam at CIOL and I, present you a list of technology trends likely to make waves in 2008.

1. Greening of IT

Data centers of today are witnessing very high power consumption and cooling requirements. Skyrocketing energy consumption surely poses a challenge to the environment. Besides this, the hazardous effect of e-waste is also a major environmental concern in today’s IT sector. (It is estimated that more than 800 million PCs will be replaced during 2007 and 2012)

As a result, the IT world has started realizing the need for ‘greening of IT’ to minimize the harmful effects of energy expulsion from IT operations and data centers. (Green Data Center report from Symantec Corp. states that nearly three-fourths of respondents of the survey stated they have interest in adopting a strategic green data center initiative).

The ‘green IT’ movement has already succeeded in creating environmental responsibility among major IT vendors across the globe.

2. Is 2008 going to be the year of Linux?

It’s been years since we started talking about the ‘year of Linux’. Finally, good news for open source buffs? Well, we really can’t predict that. But, there is a hope that the coming time could be a real turning point in the history of open source, making 2008 the year of Linux on desktop. Though Linux will not be a direct replacement for Windows, we are definitely going to see a major increase in the number of end-users adopting Linux.

PC giant Dell, at the beginning of this year, gave us a positive sign by introducing Linux computers. A number of other vendors are also betting high on Linux. Ubuntu has already received recognition among mobile users and server market. Linux Desktop, though gradually, is gaining momentum. At this point in time, we can only wait and watch the game!

3. Will Vista be the OS to own?

When Microsoft launched Vista, Gartner’s analysts suggested ignoring the new operating system until 2008 and not to rush into upgrading. So, it’s time for us to rethink. Lots of users are still waiting for the first service pack to arrive before upgrading from Windows XP. And, hopefully, SP1 is likely to arrive in the beginning of 2008.

Vista definitely offers some advanced security feature and more polished interface. But due to some concerns related to application compatibility and more hardware requirements, consumers, till now, were reluctant to switch to Vista.

However, some recent surveys show that a lot of companies are now willing to upgrade to Vista. Microsoft expects Vista to be accountable for 85 percent of operating system sales in fiscal 2008 compared with 15 percent for Windows XP. Majority of the consumers will, sooner or later, have to migrate to Vista. Well, that could be in 2008.

4. IPTV sees big surge in popularity

IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) is already in spotlight. It has opened up new possibilities for consumers, service providers and content providers. From a mere technology concept, IPTV has completed the first stage and has become a real service. In some countries, it is almost in the mass-market stage. IPTV is considered to be one of the most highly visible services to emerge as part of the development of next-generation networks (NGN).

There are many more questions to be answered pertaining to the business model, pricing, packaging and the technology itself. But, the coming year is definitely going to see more developments in the IPTV space.

One thing worth mentioning, which may prove to be crucial for IPTV to reach its market potential, is the devlopments of standards for IPTV. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) recently announced the first set of global standards for IPTV. So, there are definitely some good news for us. And, no doubt , as long as the demand for high-quality personalized content exists among the consumers, IPTV will not struggle to reach new horizons.

5. Will 802.11n arrive?

The 802.11n, the latest in the set of WLAN standards, comes with truly high speeds i.e. 4-5 times faster than 802.11g and fifty times faster than .11b! It also offers better operating distance comparing to the current wireless networks. Wow! This is really something the enterprises would love to invest in.

There is no doubt that 802.11n is well positioned to redefine wireless networking. But, would the new standard finally arrive in 2008? Ratification of the new standards is been delayed for quite a long time now and the users are really keen to see the faster version of Wi-Fi, without any more delay.

However, experts predict that ratification won’t happen overnight and it’s going to take some more time. Though some Wi-Fi vendors( Cisco, Aruba, Trapeze) have already launched 802.11n products, technology installations may happen only in the middle of 2008.

6. Short-range wireless technologies that will create a buzz

Short-range wireless technology is not just about Bluetooth anymore. New entrants like High-speed Bluetooth, Wireless USB and ZigBee are getting traction too. Demand for high data transfer rates has increased over the years with the increase in video and audio content on portable devices like mobile phones, laptops as well as on multimedia projectors and television sets.

Though high-speed Bluetooth is in its primary stage of development, it is expected to be 100 times faster than the current technology. This next-generation Bluetooth will hopefully hit the market in 2008.

Wireless USB is targeting 1Gbps throughput. Vendors have already introduced wireless USB hubs, adapters and laptops in the market. However, wide adoption of the technology depends on how soon it is going to be embedded into digital cameras, camcoders, MP3 players etc.

ZigBee is the wireless connection used by sensors and control devices. It is expected to find traction in commercial building automation in 2008.

7. No end in sight for high-definition (HD) war

Is the war between Blu-ray and HD DVD high-definition video formats never ending? Well, there, definitely, is an end. But that may not be in 2008 Analysts in the industry predict that the high-definition war may last for another year and a few months. There is a strong market position for both the standards currently and this makes it difficult to predict the winner.

Meanwhile, there has been no improvement in the sales of both the technologies this year as consumers still feel both Blu-ray and HD DVD are expensive.

On the other hand, Toshiba recently introduced comparatively low priced HD DVD players. This initiative definitely poses a challenge for Blu-Ray companies. To cope with this, they will have to cut down the hardware prices of Blu-ray. If that happens, the war will continue for some more time.

8. Shift from magnetic to solid-state hard drives

At present, the market is dominated by magnetic hard drives. But the future seems to be of solid-state hard drives as magnetic hard drives have limited data transfer speed. Solid-state hard drives are based on flash memory and is much faster memory solution. They also have advantages such as low noise and low power consumption. High pricing is the primary hindering factor for solid-state hard drives to become mainstream.

As long as the demand for high-quality personalized content exists among the consumers, IPTV will not struggle to reach new horizons.

Major players like Seagate are betting high on solid-state technology and have plans to offer it next year. Solid-state hard discs are likely to be more popular in the laptop market. If prices fall down, we can see a slow shift happening from magnetic to solid-state hard drives in 2008.

9. Is 2008 going to be a banner year for wireless?

We no more worry about the clutter of wires. Offices have gone wireless. Cities are going wireless. All portable devices have embedded wireless technologies. We are moving fast towards a ‘wire-free’ world. So, 2008, beyond doubt, is going to see much more technology developments.

Though the ‘wireless’ world won’t be a true reality so soon, the need for seamless mobility and freedom is surely going to drive more wireless technology advancements.

The upcoming 802.11n will redefine enterprise networking in the coming year. Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) will tie fixed and mobile networks to deliver enhanced user experience. 2008 is expected to be the year of Mobile WiMax as well. Above all these, 2008 will probably witness open access to all networks, which in turn will open up more opportunities.

10. The ‘iPhone mania’ to continue

iPhone rates as the most memorable new product for 2007. Yes, it literally shook the mobile phone world in 2007. Now, doubtlessly, companies would love to follow Apple’s path by introducing similar products. So, 2008 is certainly going to see mobile phones with more and more web services and multimedia functionalities integrated into it. So, 2008 could very well be a year of ‘iPhone-like’ products from Apple’s rivals.