Global mobile services revenue to grow at least 1.2pc annually through 2014

NEW YORK, USA: Unemployment has risen dramatically from just one year ago. The result is a recalibration of consumer purchasing and usage behaviors, which will affect all industries, including the normally recession-proof mobile services industry.

Yet despite current market uncertainties, a new ABI Research study shows that even under the worst recovery scenarios, mobile services revenues will continue to grow at nearly 1.2 percent through 2014, a 0.5 percent loss over pre-crisis conditions.

Dan Shey, Practice director, ABI Research, said: “A long economic recovery places pressures on mobile operators to compete on price, particularly with undifferentiated voice services. Mobile data services allow operators to counter that pressure. However each region is different. Operators should create strategies that lead customers to maintain ‘nice-to-have’ data services or encourage addition of more utilitarian ones.”

Economically, North America has been hit hardest. But mobile data services growth will exceed 8 percent through 2014 even in the worst recovery scenario and will shield mobile services revenues against growing voice pricing pressures.

While stimulus packages are helping power the Asia Pacific region through the financial crisis and limiting unemployment loss, regional operators derive a large portion of their data revenues from content downloads. These products would be the first casualties of an extended recession, particularly with APAC’s substantial prepay base. But operators can mitigate the impacts of the depressed conditions through appropriate messaging and offer management.

Shey added: “Mobile operators need to stress the utility of mobile services and pursue appropriate services personalization initiatives that allow customers to buy and use services in ways that best suit their needs. Business customers should also be a target segment as businesses consider mobile a way to lower costs and increase competitiveness.”

Combining survey data with regional economic and mobile demographic factors, ABI Research’s ”World Financial Crisis and the Mobile Services Market” provides a quantitative view of potential changes in the mobile services market based on three possible economic recovery scenarios. Forecast analysis is provided for changes in postpaid and prepaid subscriber adoption, voice usage and pricing, SMS usage and pricing, and mobile data revenues. Analysis is provided across seven different world regions.