Monday, December 5, 2011

In 3Q11, FTTx PON and CMTS shipments well above 3Q10 level, and 10G-EPON shipments begin

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA: Ovum preliminary estimates for the third quarter of 2011 indicate a still healthy fixed broadband access equipment market. According to Ovum, annualized shipment volumes remain at or close to record levels across the FTTx, DSL, and CMTS segments. Volumes in the FTTx PON and CMTS segments were up from last year while the DSL market was flat.

In a new report, the independent telecoms analyst firm said that Huawei maintained its lead in the PON OLT and ONT/ONU markets, with 40 per cent and 30 per cent shares respectively. Huawei also led the DSL market with 35 per cent share. Within DSL rankings, Ericsson moved up to fourth position for the first time in many years while Adtran moved up to sixth. Cisco remained on top of the CMTS market with 56 per cent share.

In order of descending market share:
* Top six vendors in PON OLT: Huawei, ZTE, Fiberhome, Alcatel-Lucent, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo.
* Top six vendors in PON ONT/ONU: Huawei, ZTE, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, Alcatel-Lucent, Sumitomo.
* Top six vendors in DSL: Huawei, ZTE, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks, Adtran.
* Top three vendors in CMTS: Cisco, Arris, Motorola.

In the third quarter of 2011, ZTE shipped 10G-EPON equipment, representing the first step towards an era of next-generation PON. Kamalini Ganguly, Ovum analyst, said: “Prices for 10G equipment remain high, so we expect shipment numbers to stay small for some time. Nevertheless, it is an important milestone in the quest for higher bandwidth capacity.”

Sequentially, the trends were different. Already very large, PON OLT shipments grew again but at a slower pace than in recent quarters. DSL and CMTS markets experienced double-digit sequential declines. Seasonality in North America played a role in the CMTS decline, as did other factors such as declining legacy ADSL port shipments and DSL ports shipped in conjunction with FTTB (fiber-to-the-building). The sequential declines were particularly high in the region of South & Central America, but this does not indicate that growth has stopped.

Ganguly stated: “Annualized shipments remain high in South & Central America despite large sequential declines across the DSL, CMTS, and PON market segments in 3Q11. Even YoY growth was double-digit negative or close to it in the DSL and CMTS markets. But the long-term outlook for this region remains bright.”

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