China will have over 1 billion mobile subscribers in 2014

DUBLIN. IRELAND: Research and Markets has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q10 China Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: China will have Over 1 Billion Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of China Telecom Increasing Over the Next 5 Years" to its offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on China provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Chinese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011.

Operators covered for China include: China Mobile Ltd., China Unicom Ltd., and China Telecom Corporation Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Executive summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in China's mobile operator space
+15.4 percent industry-average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009.
ARPU levels in China continue declining.
-3.7 percent operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009.

Minutes of Use per Subscriber increase in China's mobile operator space
+3.6 percent industry average MOU/Sub growth in 3Q.2009.
Positive EBITDA growth at China Mobile and China Unicom in the latest quarter.
+4.2 percent industry average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009.

So what is IEMRs forecast?
The number of mobile subscribers in China will exceed 1 billion in 2014.

We forecast that total mobile subscribers in China will increase from 706.7 million in 2009 to 1 billion in 2014.

Our model predicts that the largest operator, China Mobile, will have 686.2 million subscribers in 2014. China Unicom will have 188.1 million and China Telecom will have 105.5 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014, according to our model.
China Telecom's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years

We expect that China Telecom's subscriber market share will increase from 7 percent in 2009 to 10.5 percent in 2014.

On the other hand, China Unicom, which sold part of its operations to China Telecom in 2008, will see its subscriber market share fall from 20.5 percent in 2009 to 18.7 percent in 2014.

We forecast that China Mobile will maintain its high market share in the Chinese wireless market over the next five years. We expect that its share of total subscribers will be 68.1 percent in 2014.

ARPU levels are stabilizing at China Unicom and China Telecom.

We expect that China Mobile will see its monthly ARPU decrease from RMB 76.49 in 2009 to RMB 65.68 in 2014.

On the other hand, we forecast that ARPUs at China Unicom and China Telecom will be stable at approximately RMB 41 and RMB 64 over the forecast period, 2009-2014.

China Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margin than China Unicom

According to our forecasting model, China Mobile's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 51.1 percent in 2009 to 57.9 percent in 2014. China Unicom's EBITDA margin will remain lower. Our model predicts that China Unicom's EBITDA margin will be 29.8 percent in 2014.