Cisco VNI forecast reveals global IP traffic to increase fourfold by 2014

USA: Cisco announced the results of the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast and Methodology, 2009-2014, which projects that global IP traffic will continue to be dominated by video - exceeding 91 percent of global consumer IP traffic by 2014.

Improvements in network bandwidth capacity and Internet speeds, along with the increasing popularity of HDTV and 3DTV are key factors expecting to quadruple IP traffic from 2009 to 2014.

* The Cisco VNI Forecast, which focuses on two primary user groups—consumer and business users, was developed as an annual study to estimate global Internet Protocol traffic growth and trends. Projections are based on Cisco analysis and modeling of independent traffic, usage, and device data.
* To help network users better understand global IP traffic growth drivers and trends, Cisco updated several of its unique resources:
* The VNI forecast widget provides customized views of the growth of various network traffic types around the globe (revised for this 2009 - 2014 forecast period)
* The VNI PC Pulse” application for desktop and laptop computers helps consumers learn more about their individual impact on IP networks and compare network usage with others around the world.

Research Highlights:

Primary Growth Driver: Video
* By 2014, the sum of all forms of video (TV, VoD, Internet video, and peer-to-peer) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic.
* Global Internet video traffic will surpass global peer-to-peer traffic by the end of 2010. For the first time in the last 10 years, peer-to-peer traffic will not be the largest Internet traffic type.
* The global online video community will include more than 1 billion users by the end of 2010. This number is exceeded only slightly by the populations of China (1.3 billion) and India (1.1 billion), making this user group equivalent to the third-largest country in the world.

Total Global IP Traffic in “bytes”
* Technically speaking, global IP traffic is expected to increase more than fourfold (4.3 times growth) from 2009 to 2014, reaching 63.9 exabytes per month in 2014, up from approximately 56 exabytes per month for 2013. This is equivalent to nearly 766.8 exabytes per year - approximately three-quarters of a zettabyte by 2014.

Global Total Internet Traffic
* By 2014: the global Internet will be 4 times larger than it was in 2009.
* By 2014: the following traffic equivalents will cross the global Internet each month -- 11.8 billion DVDs; 15.7 trillion MP3’s; 295 quadrillion text messages

Global Consumer Internet Traffic
* Driven by video, Internet traffic will more than triple (from year-end 2010).

Consumer vs. Business
* By 2014, consumer IP traffic (web surfing, instant messaging, user-generated videos, etc.) will represent 87 percent of monthly total global IP traffic; while business IP traffic (email, voice, Internet, HD and web-based video conferencing, etc.) will represent 13 percent of monthly total global IP traffic.
* For 2009, consumer IP traffic represented 79 percent of monthly total global IP traffic and business IP traffic was 21 percent of monthly total global IP traffic.

3DTV and HD (Advanced Video)
* Globally, advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3D) TV and high-definition (HD), will increase 13 times between 2009 and 2014.
* By 2014, 3D will account for 4 percent of total Internet video traffic.
* By 2014, 3D and HD video will comprise 42% of total consumer Internet video traffic.

Mobile Broadband
* Global mobile data traffic will increase 39 times from 2009 to 2014.
* By 2014, annual global mobile data traffic will reach 3.5 exabytes per month (or a run rate of more than 42 exabytes annually).

Global IP Traffic Trends
* By 2014, the highest IP traffic-generating regions will be North America (19.0 exabytes per month), Asia Pacific (17.4 exabytes per month), Western Europe (16.2 exabytes per month) and Japan (4.3 exabytes per month).
* The fastest-growing IP traffic regions for the forecast period (2009 – 2014) are Latin America (51 percent CAGR, 7.9-fold growth), the Middle East and Africa (45 percent CAGR, 6.5-fold growth), and Central Europe (38 percent CAGR, 5.1-fold growth).

Network Speed Enables IP Traffic Growth: 2000 vs. 2010 Comparison
In just a decade, the average global residential Internet connection download speed has increased 35 times, which has helped to dramatically increase Internet usage.
In 2000, the average global residential Internet connection download speed was 127 kilobytes per second (Kbps). The current (2010) average global residential Internet connection download speed is 4.4 megabytes per second (Mbps.)