Ovum predicts how telecoms will fare in 2011

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA: Shifts in smartphone dominance, lower mobile subscriber growth in emerging markets and increasing demand from Web 2.0 enterprises for wholesale services are among the telecoms predictions for 2011 by independent analyst Ovum.

As the New Year begins, Ovum has released its predictions for the key issues and events that will shape the market in 2011. Broken down by analysts’ areas of coverage, the predictions provide a fascinating overview of the coming year for the telecoms industry.

Jan Dawson, Ovum’s chief telecoms analyst, said: “The telecoms landscape is changing rapidly and our predictions reflect that. Each of our practices has given their expert forecasts for the major shifts set to take place in their area over the coming year. The predictions make for compelling reading for anyone with an interest in the industry.”

Overview of Ovum’s telecoms predictions for 2011
Given here is a list of the top trends collated from Ovum’s Telecoms in 2011 predictions.

* Windows Phone 7 will upset the status quo in the smartphone market by becoming the fastest-growing smartphone platform.
* Android will overtake the iPhone as the favourite with mobile developers by end of the year.
* Cloud services will move from early adopter to the early mainstream stage and will have an impact on key emerging telco services.
* Broadband will provide the fastest and most promising growth in emerging markets.
* The emerging market mobile subscriber land grab will begin to end with single-digit or low double-digit growth becoming the norm as competition intensifies.
* Web 2.0 intermediaries will increase their demand for managed services at a wholesale level.
* Wholesale markets will begin to take off across emerging countries.
* The ‘fight’ for the connected/extended home will accelerate
* There will be debate around data business models and tariff strategies and the arrival of innovative new approaches to data service charging.
* Making prime spectrum bands available for mobile broadband will need to be a top priority.
* Regulators will become embroiled in a vigorously contested consultation process over the future of mobile termination rates.
* Telcos will invest in customer service centres and back office technology as the customer is put at the centre of their operations.
* There will be further shake outs in the telecoms supply chain and to fare well vendors will need to execute well in high-growth applications such as mobile broadband and support customers’ cost reduction and revenue growth.
* Optical component growth will moderate with demand led by 10, 40 and 100G products but the underlying business fundamentals of the market will remain unchanged, maintaining an unstable supply chain.