This title of this blog has actually been borrowed from a statement made by Gadi Singer, vice president of Intel's Mobility Group and general manager of the company's SOC Enabling Group, which I came across on SEMI's site.
Is this a recent phenomena, or has the Apple iPhone led to a strong belief in this statement that the Internet is truly going mobile? And what was that craze for 'WAP bashing' some nine to ten years ago all about? Perhaps, it is a bit of both!
I was fortunate enough to use a WAP-enabled mobile phone back in Hong Kong, in 1999-2000, a Siemens model. I tried checking my Yahoo Mail on the phone with some success. Also, I found it very convenient to search for Indian restaurants in Tsim Sha Tsui. All of this, when the 'WAP bashing' was at its peak!
In 2001, at an event organized by Frost & Sullivan in Singapore, I was probably among the three people in a large audience found to be using the mobile phone for Internet access. This is so long back, that even I can't recall for sure how many folks were really found to be using mobile Internet! Anyhow! Those were also the days when mobile Internet, as a theme, was quite popular at global telecom events, largely driven by the craze for NTT DoCoMo's i-mode phones.
Well, no one really wanted to accept back then that the Internet was going mobile! Also, the flak that some of the European carriers had to take due to their obtaining various 'quite expensive' 3G licenses dimmed the concept of the mobile Internet.
We have come a long way since! While GPRS and 3G did bring some or quite large extent of the Internet to the mobile, possibly, the push really happened when this phenomena called social networking gathered steam.
The Apple iPhone, and now, the iPhone 3G, with its cool wireless social networking applications have truly ported the Internet to the mobile. The iPhone 3G is all the rage right now. Sales crossed the 1-million mark within three days, as per various reports on the Internet. That's some speed! That's also an outstanding indication of how people are making a dash for the phenomena called wireless social networking.
In the midst of all of this, 3G, and specifically, HSDPA (and W-CDMA), has come really come to stay. The telecom-media convergence has also happened very seamlessly in the background.
While the world's leading semiconductor firms continue to churn out one excellent chip after another, especially for mobile phones/telecom, it is time to acknowledge the fact that the Internet has truly gone mobile!
One last word. Do find time to stand up and applaud the hard work put in by the semiconductor and software industry, who make all of this happen.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Why 3G operators can't ignore TD-SCDMA
Come Beijing Olympics, and China will be showcasing the TD-SCDMA (Time Division-Synchronous Code-Division Multiple Access) technology. Largely unheralded, and spoken about by relatively few, TD-SCDMA may well surprise the telecom industry and pundits.
In fact, it is not even well known that the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) in China had allocated a total frequency of 155MHz for TD-SCDMA way back in Q3 of 2002. Back then, Lothar Pauly, then member of the Group Executive Management of Siemens Information and Communication Mobile had said that the allocation of frequencies for TD-SCDMA in China marked "a milestone in the standard's development." Siemens mobile has been developing 3G technology jointly with the China Academy of Telecommunications Technology (CATT/Datang) since 1998.
As per the TD-SCDMA Forum, China Mobile has announced its TD-SCDMA terminal timetable. Apparently, in China Mobile‘s second round of TD-SCDMA terminal bidding, ZTE has won orders for 61,000 handsets and Samsung for 20,000 handsets.
Also, the MIIT has established a 3G inter-ministerial co-ordination group. Li Yizhong, minister of the new Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in China, says that the ministry has established a 3G inter-ministerial co-ordination group to promote the commercial test and ensure the success of TD-SCDMA.
He says that the ministry should actively promote the commercial test of TD-SCDMA, further reform the system, and carry out the major scientific and technological projects. Relative officials are required to supervise the construction of TD-SCDMA base stations in Beijing to ensure the call quality of TD-SCDMA and ensure the trial operation of TD-SCDMA mobile phone TVs during the upcoming Olympic Games.
The minister has also issued orders to give full support to the implementation of measures and policies beneficial for the development of TD-SCDMA. The ministry should organize Chinese telecommunication units to realize better network optimization, supply special Olympic services, co-ordinate the interoperability between 2G and 3G, solve the problems in the commercial tests, and to ensure the initial success of TD-SCDMA.
All of these developments reminds and takes me back to 2000, when TD-SCDMA was just starting to make the rounds. A good friend, Shih-ying Tan from Siemens Hong Kong, called me up to discuss this technology! Subsequently, it led to visit to Munich, to see the technology first hand!
Here are excerpts from a discussion I had, back in August 2001, with Klaus Maler, who was general manager, TD-SCDMA, for Siemens Information and Mobile Communications in Munich, Germany, at that point of time (in pic). I was serving Wireless Week, US, as its Asia-Pacific editor. Some or most of this may read a bit outdated, but it is still worth a read for those keen on TD-SCDMA.
TD-SCDMA, a 3G technology co-developed by Siemens AG and the China Academy of Telecommunications Technology, is said to be the only technology suitable for TDD (time division duplex) bands. In addition to being more spectrally efficient for both symmetrical and asymmetrical data services, it is capable of dealing with hot spot scenarios. Some TDMA operators reportedly are considering it as an option for migrating to 3G, and once deployed on the mainland of China, it is likely to reach the economies of scale that would make it attractive to mobile operators worldwide.
What are the chances that TD-SCDMA will be accepted by carriers, given that it is a TDD technology while wideband-CDMA and CDMA2000 are FDD (frequency division duplex) technologies? Isn't TDD in a minority here?
Maler had replied that TD-SCDMA, as well as W-CDMA, uses GSM MAP [manufacturing automation protocol]. This means that it is very likely to have affordable GSM/W-CDMA or GSM/TD-SCDMA dual-mode or GSM/TD-SCDMA/W-CDMA triple-mode handsets. On the other hand, an exotic GSM/CDMA2000 handset should support two different MAPs–GSM and IS-833. Dealing with such complicated and expensive handsets does not encourage GSM operators to adopt a CDMA standard.
As TD-SCDMA is TDD based, it offers optimum spectral efficiency for both symmetric and asymmetric data services. Certainly, carriers won't ignore this aspect. On an international scale, TD-SCDMA is the only technology suitable for the TDD bands, assigned by regulators worldwide and already have been auctioned in Europe. So TD-SCDMA, being an accepted standard worldwide, approved by the ITU and standardized in the 3GPP (Third-Generation Partnership Project), is definitely not in a minority.
Were there any chances that TD-SCDMA won't get locked in like another TDD standard, PHS, has in Japan? In response, Maler said TD-SCDMA is an accepted technology, while PHS is more of a local standard in Japan. Also, TDD frequencies have been allocated in most of the European countries. These are the two major reasons why TD-SCDMA has more potential.
Mainland China is already the largest mobile market now. TD-SCDMA will be deployed in China as a global standard, addressing all sizes of cells, [so] the necessary effects of scale will be available for operators worldwide.
"We had discussed with mainland Chinese manufacturers a few years ago the advantages of combining TDD technologies with smart antennas. We studied this issue and this evolved into continuous improvement and actual development. This happened at a time when we were looking at the mainland Chinese market as a major focus. Last year, when we realized that TD-SCDMA had good potential, we started to introduce it into the 3GPP. Now it has been accepted as a global standard," he said.
According to him, TD-SCDMA has a very bright future, [although] operators may go for a combination of technologies. TD-SCDMA allows operators to add spectrum for voice services using their core GSM networks. The version we are talking about for the launch in mainland China is based on a GSM core network. This will later evolve into a UMTS core network. We started developing the technology three years late, [so you could] say that TD-SCDMA is three years more modern than the other technologies. Now, we are all having trials simultaneously.
Is there a compelling case for TDMA operators to go the TD-SCDMA route? At the moment [this is 2001 end, remember], most TDMA operators in United States, for example, Cingular Wireless, AT&T Wireless and VoiceStream Wireless, are embracing GSM, thereby, acknowledging it as a worldwide standard. They are also committed to adopting the following migration path–TDMA-GSM-GPRS-EDGE-UMTS– following the footsteps of European operators.
Both of the UMTS alternatives –- W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA -– are being taken into consideration by TDMA operators, either as a complementary or an alternative solution. In particular, American TDMA operators believe that TD-SCDMA, thanks to its higher data transmission rate and its capability to deal with asymmetrical traffic and hot spot scenarios, is an interesting technology. The 1.6MHz bandwidth [it uses] will certainly ease the spectrum allocation in the already crowded spectrum currently available in the United States.
Most of the TDMA operators are moving to the GSM-GPRS-EDGE-W-CDMA route. It's not easy to get FDD spectrum in the United States and it will become even more difficult in the future. This is a very good opportunity for a TDD technology like TD-SCDMA.
Were there any plans to implement TD-SCDMA in Europe, and especially Germany, given that Siemens has been playing an active role in developing this technology?
In Europe, TD-SCDMA will be deployed with capacity-enlargement purposes in W-CDMA networks in hot spot scenarios. By that time, TD-SCDMA will already be a mature technology and will have derived benefits from the mainland Chinese experience.
Most of the operators are now focusing on W-CDMA. They can consider TD-SCDMA to enhance services later on. We are speaking with several operators in Europe. They have been surprised and have actively responded [because] they can see that the chances for TD-SCDMA to succeed have improved considerably. Operators that had not chosen Siemens for some reason now have decided to take another look at us.
And why aren't GSM operators elsewhere showing interest in this technology? Instead, they have been opting for W-CDMA? In the very beginning in Europe, around 1998, TDD was conceived as a technology only for micro and picocell coverage. Consequently, it was considered interesting only in a second phase of the UMTS deployment as a capacity enlargement. Spectrum was assigned and licenses were bought bearing this in mind.
As TD-SCDMA is also able to cover large cells, the momentum behind it is increasing considerably and we are getting quite a lot of interest from European operators of merging TDD activities into this technology.
TD-SCDMA is quite a good alternative. Also, if an operator already has W-CDMA and adds TD-SCDMA, or it's the other way around, it's quite a good combination. Very soon, carriers will notice capacity shortages, especially for the more powerful applications. Facing the fact that they are wasting bandwidth, in terms of asymmetrical traffic, TDD is the technology of choice. The combination of both technologies -- W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA -- may apply in most countries, even here in Europe.
By the way, there used to be LinkAir's LAS-CDMA (Large Area Synchronized Code-Division Multiple Access). LAS-CDMA was also said to offer a higher spectral efficiency and moving speed, thus providing better support for mobile applications. Its asymmetric traffic, higher throughput, and smaller delay provide also improved IP support. A LAS-CDMA TDD variant is compatible with systems such as TD-SCDMA.
I had written about LAS-CDMA back in 2000, but have been unable to find the link. Even there's no update on this technology. Would be great if folks could update me on LAS-CDMA.
Lastly, I need to thank Chi-Foon Chan, president and COO of Synopsys, who I recently met on the sidelines of the Synopsys SNUG event. Chan discussed TD-SCDMA and LAS-CDMA briefly, while touching upon the semicon/EDA industry. But, more of that later!
In fact, it is not even well known that the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) in China had allocated a total frequency of 155MHz for TD-SCDMA way back in Q3 of 2002. Back then, Lothar Pauly, then member of the Group Executive Management of Siemens Information and Communication Mobile had said that the allocation of frequencies for TD-SCDMA in China marked "a milestone in the standard's development." Siemens mobile has been developing 3G technology jointly with the China Academy of Telecommunications Technology (CATT/Datang) since 1998.
As per the TD-SCDMA Forum, China Mobile has announced its TD-SCDMA terminal timetable. Apparently, in China Mobile‘s second round of TD-SCDMA terminal bidding, ZTE has won orders for 61,000 handsets and Samsung for 20,000 handsets.
Also, the MIIT has established a 3G inter-ministerial co-ordination group. Li Yizhong, minister of the new Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in China, says that the ministry has established a 3G inter-ministerial co-ordination group to promote the commercial test and ensure the success of TD-SCDMA.
He says that the ministry should actively promote the commercial test of TD-SCDMA, further reform the system, and carry out the major scientific and technological projects. Relative officials are required to supervise the construction of TD-SCDMA base stations in Beijing to ensure the call quality of TD-SCDMA and ensure the trial operation of TD-SCDMA mobile phone TVs during the upcoming Olympic Games.
The minister has also issued orders to give full support to the implementation of measures and policies beneficial for the development of TD-SCDMA. The ministry should organize Chinese telecommunication units to realize better network optimization, supply special Olympic services, co-ordinate the interoperability between 2G and 3G, solve the problems in the commercial tests, and to ensure the initial success of TD-SCDMA.
All of these developments reminds and takes me back to 2000, when TD-SCDMA was just starting to make the rounds. A good friend, Shih-ying Tan from Siemens Hong Kong, called me up to discuss this technology! Subsequently, it led to visit to Munich, to see the technology first hand!
Here are excerpts from a discussion I had, back in August 2001, with Klaus Maler, who was general manager, TD-SCDMA, for Siemens Information and Mobile Communications in Munich, Germany, at that point of time (in pic). I was serving Wireless Week, US, as its Asia-Pacific editor. Some or most of this may read a bit outdated, but it is still worth a read for those keen on TD-SCDMA.TD-SCDMA, a 3G technology co-developed by Siemens AG and the China Academy of Telecommunications Technology, is said to be the only technology suitable for TDD (time division duplex) bands. In addition to being more spectrally efficient for both symmetrical and asymmetrical data services, it is capable of dealing with hot spot scenarios. Some TDMA operators reportedly are considering it as an option for migrating to 3G, and once deployed on the mainland of China, it is likely to reach the economies of scale that would make it attractive to mobile operators worldwide.
What are the chances that TD-SCDMA will be accepted by carriers, given that it is a TDD technology while wideband-CDMA and CDMA2000 are FDD (frequency division duplex) technologies? Isn't TDD in a minority here?
Maler had replied that TD-SCDMA, as well as W-CDMA, uses GSM MAP [manufacturing automation protocol]. This means that it is very likely to have affordable GSM/W-CDMA or GSM/TD-SCDMA dual-mode or GSM/TD-SCDMA/W-CDMA triple-mode handsets. On the other hand, an exotic GSM/CDMA2000 handset should support two different MAPs–GSM and IS-833. Dealing with such complicated and expensive handsets does not encourage GSM operators to adopt a CDMA standard.
As TD-SCDMA is TDD based, it offers optimum spectral efficiency for both symmetric and asymmetric data services. Certainly, carriers won't ignore this aspect. On an international scale, TD-SCDMA is the only technology suitable for the TDD bands, assigned by regulators worldwide and already have been auctioned in Europe. So TD-SCDMA, being an accepted standard worldwide, approved by the ITU and standardized in the 3GPP (Third-Generation Partnership Project), is definitely not in a minority.
Were there any chances that TD-SCDMA won't get locked in like another TDD standard, PHS, has in Japan? In response, Maler said TD-SCDMA is an accepted technology, while PHS is more of a local standard in Japan. Also, TDD frequencies have been allocated in most of the European countries. These are the two major reasons why TD-SCDMA has more potential.
Mainland China is already the largest mobile market now. TD-SCDMA will be deployed in China as a global standard, addressing all sizes of cells, [so] the necessary effects of scale will be available for operators worldwide.
"We had discussed with mainland Chinese manufacturers a few years ago the advantages of combining TDD technologies with smart antennas. We studied this issue and this evolved into continuous improvement and actual development. This happened at a time when we were looking at the mainland Chinese market as a major focus. Last year, when we realized that TD-SCDMA had good potential, we started to introduce it into the 3GPP. Now it has been accepted as a global standard," he said.
According to him, TD-SCDMA has a very bright future, [although] operators may go for a combination of technologies. TD-SCDMA allows operators to add spectrum for voice services using their core GSM networks. The version we are talking about for the launch in mainland China is based on a GSM core network. This will later evolve into a UMTS core network. We started developing the technology three years late, [so you could] say that TD-SCDMA is three years more modern than the other technologies. Now, we are all having trials simultaneously.
Is there a compelling case for TDMA operators to go the TD-SCDMA route? At the moment [this is 2001 end, remember], most TDMA operators in United States, for example, Cingular Wireless, AT&T Wireless and VoiceStream Wireless, are embracing GSM, thereby, acknowledging it as a worldwide standard. They are also committed to adopting the following migration path–TDMA-GSM-GPRS-EDGE-UMTS– following the footsteps of European operators.
Both of the UMTS alternatives –- W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA -– are being taken into consideration by TDMA operators, either as a complementary or an alternative solution. In particular, American TDMA operators believe that TD-SCDMA, thanks to its higher data transmission rate and its capability to deal with asymmetrical traffic and hot spot scenarios, is an interesting technology. The 1.6MHz bandwidth [it uses] will certainly ease the spectrum allocation in the already crowded spectrum currently available in the United States.
Most of the TDMA operators are moving to the GSM-GPRS-EDGE-W-CDMA route. It's not easy to get FDD spectrum in the United States and it will become even more difficult in the future. This is a very good opportunity for a TDD technology like TD-SCDMA.
Were there any plans to implement TD-SCDMA in Europe, and especially Germany, given that Siemens has been playing an active role in developing this technology?
In Europe, TD-SCDMA will be deployed with capacity-enlargement purposes in W-CDMA networks in hot spot scenarios. By that time, TD-SCDMA will already be a mature technology and will have derived benefits from the mainland Chinese experience.
Most of the operators are now focusing on W-CDMA. They can consider TD-SCDMA to enhance services later on. We are speaking with several operators in Europe. They have been surprised and have actively responded [because] they can see that the chances for TD-SCDMA to succeed have improved considerably. Operators that had not chosen Siemens for some reason now have decided to take another look at us.
And why aren't GSM operators elsewhere showing interest in this technology? Instead, they have been opting for W-CDMA? In the very beginning in Europe, around 1998, TDD was conceived as a technology only for micro and picocell coverage. Consequently, it was considered interesting only in a second phase of the UMTS deployment as a capacity enlargement. Spectrum was assigned and licenses were bought bearing this in mind.
As TD-SCDMA is also able to cover large cells, the momentum behind it is increasing considerably and we are getting quite a lot of interest from European operators of merging TDD activities into this technology.
TD-SCDMA is quite a good alternative. Also, if an operator already has W-CDMA and adds TD-SCDMA, or it's the other way around, it's quite a good combination. Very soon, carriers will notice capacity shortages, especially for the more powerful applications. Facing the fact that they are wasting bandwidth, in terms of asymmetrical traffic, TDD is the technology of choice. The combination of both technologies -- W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA -- may apply in most countries, even here in Europe.
By the way, there used to be LinkAir's LAS-CDMA (Large Area Synchronized Code-Division Multiple Access). LAS-CDMA was also said to offer a higher spectral efficiency and moving speed, thus providing better support for mobile applications. Its asymmetric traffic, higher throughput, and smaller delay provide also improved IP support. A LAS-CDMA TDD variant is compatible with systems such as TD-SCDMA.
I had written about LAS-CDMA back in 2000, but have been unable to find the link. Even there's no update on this technology. Would be great if folks could update me on LAS-CDMA.
Lastly, I need to thank Chi-Foon Chan, president and COO of Synopsys, who I recently met on the sidelines of the Synopsys SNUG event. Chan discussed TD-SCDMA and LAS-CDMA briefly, while touching upon the semicon/EDA industry. But, more of that later!
Friday, July 11, 2008
iPhone 3G launched! What users say
Right then! The D-day is today... the much awaited Apple iPhone 3G has been launched!
Buyers in New Zealand and Japan were among the earliest to get their hands on the new iPhone. Evidently, the Apple lovers are over the moon and can't stop gushing about the great features that the new phone has!
All that's fine!
How can the Apple iPhone 3G help boost data usage? How can it help operators raise the ARPUs? Or, will a high-end phone still be used for voice and data? Will it change the fortunes of the memory market? What impact will it have on the semiconductor market as a whole? We will have the answers to most of these questions by the end of this year, and in some cases, over the next year or two.
Will there be a shift in brand loyalty -- for example, from say, Nokia to Apple -- even that remains to be seen. Surely, the likes of Nokia, Samsung, SonyEricsson and LG would not be sitting quietly and see the thunder being stolen from them!
Will there be a surge of touchscreen phones all over the world? Probably yes. I've had a touchscreen MP4 player with camera since late 2005, but I never really liked that touchscreen, as it always dirties the nice little LCD. Anyhow!
Coming back to the iPhone 3G, I've had some interesting conversations with several of my friends across the globe, specifically, Asia.
From Hong Kong, a friend told me that the demand there can be reflected by the fact that there are over 60,000 registrations for buying the iPhone, with today being the official launch day!
However, another friend's response, who's actually not an admirer of Apple, simply said that he doesn't even feel the slightest inclination to even check it out!
From Taipei, Taiwan, a good friend shared the thought that compared to the previous model, the 3G iPhone seems to be cheaper. However, people have been saying that the case is made of plastic and does not feel that good than the previous metal material.
Another friend is thinking of buying the iPhone HTC Diamond or 3G, as the iPhone will not be available in Taiwan till 3Q-08. However, this friend added that some Apple fans plan to buy it via bid Web sites.
A friend from the Philippines, who's now relocated to Hong Kong, sent me a list of URLs where there are long discussions about the Apple iPhone. The comment -- People are going nuts though… the demand is of 60,000 and only 500 units are available!
Yet another, who moved to Hong Kong from China, adds that iPhone 3G has been launched in Hong Kong bundled with 'expensive' mobile phone packages. Maybe, the fever is a bit lesser, for Apple fans.
Next, a friend from Auckland, New Zealand, very kindly sent me a link titled Who bought the World's first iPhone 3G! Apparently, that honor goes to 24-year old Jonny Gladwell, who, at exactly one minute past midnight, walked into the Vodafone store on Queen Street in Auckland and bought the world’s first iPhone 3G, after spending over 50 hours on the street!
Wow! Talk about building up some demand!! It's really good to see this global craze regarding a consumer electronics product! The buzz is surely back, for now!
Buyers in New Zealand and Japan were among the earliest to get their hands on the new iPhone. Evidently, the Apple lovers are over the moon and can't stop gushing about the great features that the new phone has!
All that's fine!
How can the Apple iPhone 3G help boost data usage? How can it help operators raise the ARPUs? Or, will a high-end phone still be used for voice and data? Will it change the fortunes of the memory market? What impact will it have on the semiconductor market as a whole? We will have the answers to most of these questions by the end of this year, and in some cases, over the next year or two.
Will there be a shift in brand loyalty -- for example, from say, Nokia to Apple -- even that remains to be seen. Surely, the likes of Nokia, Samsung, SonyEricsson and LG would not be sitting quietly and see the thunder being stolen from them!
Will there be a surge of touchscreen phones all over the world? Probably yes. I've had a touchscreen MP4 player with camera since late 2005, but I never really liked that touchscreen, as it always dirties the nice little LCD. Anyhow!
Coming back to the iPhone 3G, I've had some interesting conversations with several of my friends across the globe, specifically, Asia.
From Hong Kong, a friend told me that the demand there can be reflected by the fact that there are over 60,000 registrations for buying the iPhone, with today being the official launch day!
However, another friend's response, who's actually not an admirer of Apple, simply said that he doesn't even feel the slightest inclination to even check it out!
From Taipei, Taiwan, a good friend shared the thought that compared to the previous model, the 3G iPhone seems to be cheaper. However, people have been saying that the case is made of plastic and does not feel that good than the previous metal material.
Another friend is thinking of buying the iPhone HTC Diamond or 3G, as the iPhone will not be available in Taiwan till 3Q-08. However, this friend added that some Apple fans plan to buy it via bid Web sites.
A friend from the Philippines, who's now relocated to Hong Kong, sent me a list of URLs where there are long discussions about the Apple iPhone. The comment -- People are going nuts though… the demand is of 60,000 and only 500 units are available!
Yet another, who moved to Hong Kong from China, adds that iPhone 3G has been launched in Hong Kong bundled with 'expensive' mobile phone packages. Maybe, the fever is a bit lesser, for Apple fans.
Next, a friend from Auckland, New Zealand, very kindly sent me a link titled Who bought the World's first iPhone 3G! Apparently, that honor goes to 24-year old Jonny Gladwell, who, at exactly one minute past midnight, walked into the Vodafone store on Queen Street in Auckland and bought the world’s first iPhone 3G, after spending over 50 hours on the street!
Wow! Talk about building up some demand!! It's really good to see this global craze regarding a consumer electronics product! The buzz is surely back, for now!
Monday, July 7, 2008
Memories of ITU Telecom Asia
My love affair with telecom began way back in the late 1980s, when C-DoT was just getting in prominence, and there were some talks about introducing mobile phones in the country. Telecom has come a long way since.
Not many large telecom shows were held at that time, and I certainly did not get a chance to attend a real 'telecom' show till I managed to participate at the ITU's Telecom Asia in Hong Kong, only in 2000. Since then, it's been fun attending the ITU Telecom shows, be it Hong Kong or Geneva. Of course, there was CommunicAsia in neighboring Singapore, but it was always my desire to be part of an ITU show.
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This year's ITU Telecom Asia will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, a really great place to visit. Here's a picture with my colleagues from Global Sources -- Alfred Cheng, John Ng and Maggie Luo -- during ITU Telecom 2006, (on my birthday, actually) at Hong Kong's sprawling AsiaWorld Expo -- the last ITU Asia show that I had the privilege of attending that chilly December.
I will always remember my first ITU show simply for the WAP (wireless access protocol) phenomena. WAP was just coming into its own during those days, and had to take a lot of flak. There used to be headlines those days, reading, "WAP IS CRAP!" Well, how wrong this turned out to be!
It was also the first show, if I remember correctly, which highlighted mobile Internet for the first time. Satellite communications was still in vogue back in those days. Well, optical networking was also quite strong, with DWDM making the rounds. I remember interviewing Corning during the show!
The Hong Kong ITU show in 2000 was the first time I had a glimpse of Huawei and ZTE close-up, although I did visit the Huawei factory in the middle of 2000, and for the first time saw what 3G base stations looked like. In fact, W-CDMA was just starting to come up. NTT DoCoMo was the hotshot back in late 2000. Its FOMA (freedom of mobile 'multimedia' access) service was just starting to roll in. Of course, those were also the days of the i-mode phones!
The Japanese have been the pioneers in mobile phones and mobile Internet, followed closely by Korea. I believe, the same year, DoCoMo had started trials with SK Telecom in Korea for W-CDMA, for the upcoming World Cup Soccer in Korea and Japan in 2002. Another delight at ITU Telecom Asia 2000 were the range of 3G phones on display, mostly by Japanese companies. Oh yes, broadband was the 'rage'.
The last ITU Telecom Asia in 2006 was vastly different. Alcatel-Lucent had a huge booth! CBoss was gaining ground as a leading billing solutions provider. Not to speak of the exquisite range of mobile phones from Japanese, Korean and Chinese vendors.
Huawei and ZTE had become really huge by the end of 2006, and had started to play a significantly major role in global telecom.
It was my pleasure to discuss the latest DECT standard with Infineon during ITU Telecom Asia 2006, I believe, it was CAT-iq (Cordless Advanced Technology - Internet and Quality). There were several GPS devices as well as booths with mobile payment solutions.
Yes, telecom has come along a very long way! This year's theme -- "New Generation, New Values," aptly sets the theme for ITU Telecom Asia. Let's see what this edition has in store!
Not many large telecom shows were held at that time, and I certainly did not get a chance to attend a real 'telecom' show till I managed to participate at the ITU's Telecom Asia in Hong Kong, only in 2000. Since then, it's been fun attending the ITU Telecom shows, be it Hong Kong or Geneva. Of course, there was CommunicAsia in neighboring Singapore, but it was always my desire to be part of an ITU show.
.jpg)
This year's ITU Telecom Asia will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, a really great place to visit. Here's a picture with my colleagues from Global Sources -- Alfred Cheng, John Ng and Maggie Luo -- during ITU Telecom 2006, (on my birthday, actually) at Hong Kong's sprawling AsiaWorld Expo -- the last ITU Asia show that I had the privilege of attending that chilly December.I will always remember my first ITU show simply for the WAP (wireless access protocol) phenomena. WAP was just coming into its own during those days, and had to take a lot of flak. There used to be headlines those days, reading, "WAP IS CRAP!" Well, how wrong this turned out to be!
It was also the first show, if I remember correctly, which highlighted mobile Internet for the first time. Satellite communications was still in vogue back in those days. Well, optical networking was also quite strong, with DWDM making the rounds. I remember interviewing Corning during the show!
The Hong Kong ITU show in 2000 was the first time I had a glimpse of Huawei and ZTE close-up, although I did visit the Huawei factory in the middle of 2000, and for the first time saw what 3G base stations looked like. In fact, W-CDMA was just starting to come up. NTT DoCoMo was the hotshot back in late 2000. Its FOMA (freedom of mobile 'multimedia' access) service was just starting to roll in. Of course, those were also the days of the i-mode phones!
The Japanese have been the pioneers in mobile phones and mobile Internet, followed closely by Korea. I believe, the same year, DoCoMo had started trials with SK Telecom in Korea for W-CDMA, for the upcoming World Cup Soccer in Korea and Japan in 2002. Another delight at ITU Telecom Asia 2000 were the range of 3G phones on display, mostly by Japanese companies. Oh yes, broadband was the 'rage'.
The last ITU Telecom Asia in 2006 was vastly different. Alcatel-Lucent had a huge booth! CBoss was gaining ground as a leading billing solutions provider. Not to speak of the exquisite range of mobile phones from Japanese, Korean and Chinese vendors.
Huawei and ZTE had become really huge by the end of 2006, and had started to play a significantly major role in global telecom.
It was my pleasure to discuss the latest DECT standard with Infineon during ITU Telecom Asia 2006, I believe, it was CAT-iq (Cordless Advanced Technology - Internet and Quality). There were several GPS devices as well as booths with mobile payment solutions.
Yes, telecom has come along a very long way! This year's theme -- "New Generation, New Values," aptly sets the theme for ITU Telecom Asia. Let's see what this edition has in store!
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Can Apple lead rebound in NAND fortunes?
There is an interesting piece of news on Digitimes, Taiwan, which says that Samsung has recently told its downstream customers that it will start reducing supply of NAND flash chips from July as Apple, Samsung's key customer, has placed a large batch of orders.
Will this move do anything to the NAND flash market? In the earlier blog, I had highlighted what Future Horizon's Malcolm Penn had mentioned -- that the impact of the Apple iPhone has been minimal so far on the chip market. "It's just one item in a very large and complex mix of products. The overall iPhone volume is miniscule," he says. I would probably go with that statement.
Even Semico, in its recent report, has said that the NAND market has not experienced the 'Apple effect' as has been seen in previous years, so far in 2008, despite the upcoming 3G iPhone (with up to 16GB of storage) and the SSD option for the MacBook Air.
With a majority of the analyst community yet to give the green signal about an industry revival of sorts, everything depends largely on how the new iPhone will do! However, even if it does do well, it just may not be enough!
The consumer confidence is still quite low, and rising oil prices are not really helping. Will these factors have any effect on the consumer electronics segment in the long run? Too early to say though, and do bear in mind that one product or one brand can find it a tough ask to turn around, rather, lead the memory market, and the consumer electronics industry to huge growths.
All of us in the semiconductor/chip industry keep hoping that a strong rebound does happen, and that the industry remains on course of a strong growth in 2008. However, it is not right to pin faith on one product or one brand to lead a revival.
We are probably either to hung up about numbers or about technologies. Especially, whenever a new product or technology comes around, we start banking on that product or technology to revive the industry's fortunes. Great technologies do not essentially lead to market revivals. We have seen that happen umpteen number of times.
Perhaps, it'd be wiser to let the industry have a 'free fall' or 'free growth', if you may, for some time, and let corrections happen over time, rather than bank on something or the other to carry the industry's fortunes forward.
Will this move do anything to the NAND flash market? In the earlier blog, I had highlighted what Future Horizon's Malcolm Penn had mentioned -- that the impact of the Apple iPhone has been minimal so far on the chip market. "It's just one item in a very large and complex mix of products. The overall iPhone volume is miniscule," he says. I would probably go with that statement.
Even Semico, in its recent report, has said that the NAND market has not experienced the 'Apple effect' as has been seen in previous years, so far in 2008, despite the upcoming 3G iPhone (with up to 16GB of storage) and the SSD option for the MacBook Air.
With a majority of the analyst community yet to give the green signal about an industry revival of sorts, everything depends largely on how the new iPhone will do! However, even if it does do well, it just may not be enough!
The consumer confidence is still quite low, and rising oil prices are not really helping. Will these factors have any effect on the consumer electronics segment in the long run? Too early to say though, and do bear in mind that one product or one brand can find it a tough ask to turn around, rather, lead the memory market, and the consumer electronics industry to huge growths.
All of us in the semiconductor/chip industry keep hoping that a strong rebound does happen, and that the industry remains on course of a strong growth in 2008. However, it is not right to pin faith on one product or one brand to lead a revival.
We are probably either to hung up about numbers or about technologies. Especially, whenever a new product or technology comes around, we start banking on that product or technology to revive the industry's fortunes. Great technologies do not essentially lead to market revivals. We have seen that happen umpteen number of times.
Perhaps, it'd be wiser to let the industry have a 'free fall' or 'free growth', if you may, for some time, and let corrections happen over time, rather than bank on something or the other to carry the industry's fortunes forward.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
iPhone's impact minimal on chip market
Future Horizons recently released its Global Semiconductor Monthly Report June 2008. Download the report here.
The first question on everyone's minds is: Are there finally any signs of the global semiconductor/chip industry turning around. Malcolm Penn, CEO, Future Horizons says that most of the evidence is still anecdotal. The real, clear proof will show itself in Q3-08.
There are a set of market fundamentals that are in remarkably strong form. The global economy still strong, and even showing signs of 'not getting worse' in the US. However, there is also tight fab capacity. No matter, the unit demand has been holding firm and ASPs are holding no longer in free fall.
Even the memory market has been holding up much better for now. Penn says that memory ASPs have been 'flat' for six months now. So, there has been some upward movement in ASPs. According to Penn, memories have been flat, and are no longer falling. The logic has been increasing, but micro is still falling, and the overall total ICs is trending up.
The impact of Apple's iPhone 3G has been minimal so far on the chip market. Penn says: "It's just one item in a very large and complex mix of products. The overall i-phone volume is miniscule," adds Penn.
With several advancements and announcements happening in the solar/PV segment, it may seem that the solar/PV market is taking over from where the chip market slipped. Penn says that although it certainly is a growth market for the equipment suppliers, but with still very small numbers, it cannot make up for the semicon equipment/capex slowdown.
Future Horizons had earlier forecasted 12 percent growth for the global semiconductor in 2008. With some other analysts revising forecasts, let us examine whether Future Horizons consider a revision as well.
Penn says: "If I were doing the forecast now, I'd have probably settled on 10 percent rather than 12 percent, but this is fine-tuning the maths, and not the analysis. We will not be changing our forecast at the July seminar.
"Our overall message is clear. The growth this year will NOT be 4-5 percent. I really do not care, if 10 percent rather than 12 percent is the final real number. We are not in the business of 'guessing the right number', rather, just getting the trends and analysis right."
Penny yet to drop
Finally, there is a need to take into account the falling cap ex, tight capacity, focus on profits, continuing strong market demand, second half seasonal effects, etc. The forecast tea leaves all seem to be pointing in the same positive direction. Has the worm finally turned for the industry? Future Horizons thinks so! It also believes that the penny has yet to drop and that the impact on the market will be dramatic.
Penn explains that low capex means less new capacity (12 months later). And less new capacity means tighter supply. Tighter supply means price increases and rationing.
In parallel, falling ASPs means less profits. Less profits means an unwillingness to invest. Low ASPs means a reluctance to supply. Eventually, either someone exits the business or they increase the price.
"Positive unit growth (it is, IC units are up 9.2 percent YTD on 2007) and a positive ASP growth (so far 2008 YTD the trend is still negative 3.9, but this will reduce in 2H at least to zero, my guess is slightly positive. It is already only half last year's decline) means strong value growth hence our belief growth will end up in the '10 percent' range," he adds.
The first question on everyone's minds is: Are there finally any signs of the global semiconductor/chip industry turning around. Malcolm Penn, CEO, Future Horizons says that most of the evidence is still anecdotal. The real, clear proof will show itself in Q3-08.
There are a set of market fundamentals that are in remarkably strong form. The global economy still strong, and even showing signs of 'not getting worse' in the US. However, there is also tight fab capacity. No matter, the unit demand has been holding firm and ASPs are holding no longer in free fall.
Even the memory market has been holding up much better for now. Penn says that memory ASPs have been 'flat' for six months now. So, there has been some upward movement in ASPs. According to Penn, memories have been flat, and are no longer falling. The logic has been increasing, but micro is still falling, and the overall total ICs is trending up.
The impact of Apple's iPhone 3G has been minimal so far on the chip market. Penn says: "It's just one item in a very large and complex mix of products. The overall i-phone volume is miniscule," adds Penn.
With several advancements and announcements happening in the solar/PV segment, it may seem that the solar/PV market is taking over from where the chip market slipped. Penn says that although it certainly is a growth market for the equipment suppliers, but with still very small numbers, it cannot make up for the semicon equipment/capex slowdown.
Future Horizons had earlier forecasted 12 percent growth for the global semiconductor in 2008. With some other analysts revising forecasts, let us examine whether Future Horizons consider a revision as well.
Penn says: "If I were doing the forecast now, I'd have probably settled on 10 percent rather than 12 percent, but this is fine-tuning the maths, and not the analysis. We will not be changing our forecast at the July seminar.
"Our overall message is clear. The growth this year will NOT be 4-5 percent. I really do not care, if 10 percent rather than 12 percent is the final real number. We are not in the business of 'guessing the right number', rather, just getting the trends and analysis right."
Penny yet to drop
Finally, there is a need to take into account the falling cap ex, tight capacity, focus on profits, continuing strong market demand, second half seasonal effects, etc. The forecast tea leaves all seem to be pointing in the same positive direction. Has the worm finally turned for the industry? Future Horizons thinks so! It also believes that the penny has yet to drop and that the impact on the market will be dramatic.
Penn explains that low capex means less new capacity (12 months later). And less new capacity means tighter supply. Tighter supply means price increases and rationing.
In parallel, falling ASPs means less profits. Less profits means an unwillingness to invest. Low ASPs means a reluctance to supply. Eventually, either someone exits the business or they increase the price.
"Positive unit growth (it is, IC units are up 9.2 percent YTD on 2007) and a positive ASP growth (so far 2008 YTD the trend is still negative 3.9, but this will reduce in 2H at least to zero, my guess is slightly positive. It is already only half last year's decline) means strong value growth hence our belief growth will end up in the '10 percent' range," he adds.
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