Wednesday, May 20, 2009

LTE to reach 100mn subscriptions faster than any previous mobile standard

CAMBRIDGE, USA: The number of Long Term Evolution (LTE) subscriptions worldwide will grow at a CAGR of 404 percent from 2010 to 2014, a pace faster than any previous mobile standard, including 3G, according to a new report from Pyramid Research.

LTE's Five-Year Global Forecast: Poised to Grow Faster than 3G identifies the main technical and business drivers, as well as the challenges for the LTE platform, and analyzes its market opportunity in comparison with earlier mobile technologies in their first few years of commercialization.

The 19-page report provides Pyramid Research's five-year outlook on LTE adoption, highlighting the largest LTE markets, and comparing adoption rates in emerging and developed markets. It also examines the LTE-related products, demos, and announcements of six of the largest vendors worldwide, including an analysis of how they compare with one another in terms of time to market and customer wins.

For the first time, most of the major players, operators, and vendors alike, are behind the same mobile standard, notes Daniel Locke, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report. "By using LTE's more efficient and cost-effective flat IP architecture, mobile operators can transfer the savings to end users in the form of lower prices for access, faster data rates, and higher traffic allowances for a wider adoption of mobile data services," he says.

"To date, 27 mobile operators worldwide have publicly committed to deploying LTE, with 12 of them expected to roll out commercial services in 2010 and the remainder during 2011 and 2012," he adds.

Pyramid expects LTE to grow more rapidly than preceding mobile standards in terms of subscriptions. "While it took nearly six years for UMTS/HSPA to reach 100 million subscriptions, Pyramid predicts that LTE will take just over four years to reach the same milestone," explains Locke. "The number of LTE subscriptions worldwide will grow at a CAGR of 404 percent from 2010 to 2014 and reach 136 million by year-end 2014," he says.

"The majority of LTE subscriptions in the early stage will come in developed markets, where most of the first LTE deployments will occur -- with the US and Japan leading," Locke says. "However, LTE will grow 30 percent faster in emerging markets than developed ones; subscriptions in emerging markets will account for 43 percent of the LTE total in 2014, up from 5 percent in 2010," he adds. Fueled by vendor support of TDD-mode, growth in emerging markets will be driven largely by China with 36.1 million subscriptions in 2014.

Download an excerpt of this report here!

LTE's Five-Year Global Forecast: Poised to Grow Faster than 3G is priced at $595 and can be purchased online here: or by contacting Jeff Claudino via email at claudino@pyr.com or telephone at +1-619-229-9940.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Shipment of Taiwan's basic/feature phones exceeds forecasts in 1Q '09

TAIPEI, TAIWAN: According to research of the Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) conducted as part of the ITIS project, shipment volume of the Taiwanese basic/feature phone industry in the first quarter of 2009 is estimated at 10.21 million units.

Even though shipment volume declined sequentially in the first quarter, it was still higher than the 9.42 million units originally forecast. Taiwanese shipment volume did not experience the steep declines which were forecast, and instead rebounded somewhat.

This also caused supply of upstream basic/feature phone component manufacturers to become tight. Meanwhile, ASP (Average Selling Price) of the Taiwanese industry increased from US$43 in the fourth quarter of 2008 to US$45 in the first quarter of 2009. This was caused by the increasing shipment share of EDGE (Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution) products and the fact that some ultra value-line models reached EOL (End of Life).

In the first quarter the Taiwanese basic/feature phone industry obtained rush orders, with companies such as CCI and Arima receiving orders from emerging markets including China, Brazil, Russia and India.

According to MIC Industry Analyst Eddie Tsai: "At the end of November 2008, international vendors significantly reduced orders for the Taiwanese industry, causing a large-scale decline of Taiwanese basic/feature phone shipments; at the beginning of 2009. However, international vendors discovered that channel inventories started to decline. They released orders to their Taiwanese production partners to replenish inventories."

Regarding different system technologies, the EDGE shipment share in the first quarter increased to 5.4 percent as Motorola gradually focused on EDGE in new basic/feature phone outsourcing. As for CDMA products, due to weakening demand, Nokia became more conservative in outsourcing products, causing the CDMA shipment share in Taiwan's
industry to fall 3.5 percentage points to 13.5 percent in the first quarter.

This CDMA decline was not related to the fact that Foxconn previously lost some Nokia engine board orders. WCDMA shipment share fell to 0.4 percent in the first quarter as some Qisda WCDMA models reached EOL. The GSM/GPRS shipment share increased slightly in the first quarter as the CDMA shipment share declined.

Telecoms operators support "new" broadband forum

UK: Top telecommunications operators BT, Orange and Verizon have already welcomed yesterday’s announcement of the union between the Broadband Forum and the IP/MPLS Forum.

The news, which will see a “new” Broadband Forum emerge, was announced in Valencia, Spain, yesterday, where the two organisations came together for the first time. This consolidation in the standards and specifications community creates a Broadband Forum with more than 200 members, comprising service providers, vendors, chip manufacturers and regulatory bodies from across the world.

Kevin Foster, Head of Wireline Access at BT, said: “This union means we will all benefit from a greater end-to-end approach for network and protocol standardisation, and that includes end-to-end performance, interoperability, architecture and protocols. It is good news for the industry”.

His views were echoed in the United States, where Verizon’s Stu Elby, Vice President of Network Architecture, said that Verizon had been an active member of both organisations and applauded the move.

“As broadband convergence continues, the Broadband Forum will be a key organisation to ensure providers’ needs are met with a holistic end-to-end perspective, ensuring no gaps in critical network specifications,” he added.

The new Broadband Forum will cover a much wider scope of activity. It is expected that it will be increasingly influential in defining interoperable network equipment for local broadband access, advancing mobile backhaul solutions and empowering the next wave of business services, IPTV, gaming, and other applications as they arise.

Consolidation in this part of the industry was welcomed by Orange.

“We are very enthusiastic to see the industry defragmenting,” said Philippe Lucas, Vice President, International Standards and Industry Relationships at Orange.

“The union will allow better efficiency and coherence for some key topics for this industry, such as transport equipment interoperability, mobile backhaul, access and core networks integration,” he added.

Bangalore's 3DSoC wins Sony Ericsson Developer award

BANGALORE, INDIA: 3DSoC an interactive 3D modeling company based in Bangalore has been awarded with the prestigious “Sony-Ericsson Certified Developer”. 3DSoC’s entry, the ‘Create-a-Card’ application, has been selected in the “Best applications” category in the Sony Ericsson Developer World contest held recently in India.

Jens Greve, Global Head of Sony Ericsson Developer World, conferred the award during the Great Indian Developer Summit conference held at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore.

3DSoC’s patented light-weight format for representing 3D enables visually attractive, feature rich, lightweight, interactive 3D mobile multi-media applications.

The simple and easy to use Create-a-Card application uses 3D models and scenes to enable a high utility consumer application on mobile phones. The Create-a-Card application enables a user to send visually attractive, personalized greetings to their friends and family using MMS in an off-line mode.

Users can create and personalize any number of greeting cards on their mobile, at their convenience –- with the recipient’s name and the greetings messages embedded in the card -– capture it as an image, and send the image to recipients using MMS. The user can manipulate the orientation and position of the 3D scene to create many ‘unique’ cards, on the fly!

Ram Rajagopalan, 3D Solid Compression said: “This 3D mobile application empowers a user with the ability to communicate and express their wishes in a rich, visual format on occasions and offers a powerful alternative to plain text messaging. Mobile users can visit our WAPsite -- m.3dsoc.com -- and experience a different flavor of this offering on different occasions throughout the year, as we continuously update our WAPsite with new content”.

He also added that “Developer tools based on the VIS (Virtual Interactive Solid) technology will be available globally for Content Developers through Sony-Ericsson Developer World soon. Content Developers can use these tools to build powerful and light-weight Rich Immersive Applications (RIA) for the mobile market”.

Greve, said: “We were very impressed with 3DSoC’s technology and the vast potential that it brings to enabling Rich, Immersive applications on the mobile. The “Create-a-Card” application showcases this technology while enabling a high-utility consumer application on the mobile. 3DSoC is now undergoing the Sony-Ericsson Mentorship program. We are looking forward to working with 3DSoC to bring this technology on the mobile phones“

Monday, May 18, 2009

Broadband Forum Union with IP/MPLS Forum establishes central body for next-gen packet network specs

UK: A powerful new worldwide organisation has been created today by the union of the Broadband Forum and the IP/MPLS Forum. These two organizations bring together the industry experts who have, until now, looked at the evolving broadband network from different ends of the network. With this union, the core and access aggregation work of the IP/MPLS Forum will seamlessly blend and strengthen the local transport and digital home management specifications of the Broadband Forum.

United under the Broadband Forum name, the new organisation, comprising an enlarged 220 strong membership of most of the world’s leading service providers, equipment manufacturers, chip vendors and industry bodies, will play an increasingly influential role in defining interoperable network equipment for local broadband access, advancing mobile backhaul solutions as well as empowering the next wave of business services, IPTV, gaming and other applications as they arise.

“Both organisations have played an important and highly valued role as the world has grown into the broadband-rich society we enjoy today. Now, together, we can help guide the industry forward across an ever-widening range of technologies and applications,” said Broadband Forum Chairman and President George Dobrowski.

“We are very excited by the prospects created by this union of two long standing and well respected specification bodies and our dedicated teams are already working well together as we begin to put the new organisation into action.”

The union follows an industry analysis undertaken by the IP/MPLS Forum Board last year, which concluded that convergence was the key to the future success of standards specifications work. It then focused on how its work aligned with other organisations and when, in June 2008, the former DSL Forum became the Broadband Forum -– with a focus on convergence and technology agnostic solutions –- it appeared that many gaps towards empowering a stronger end-to-end multiservice architecture could be filled by bringing the two organisations together.

“I am tremendously proud of what the IP/MPLS Forum has achieved in its 18-year history and also proud of the fact that we recognised and addressed the need to follow technology convergence by uniting with the Broadband Forum for the overall benefit of the industry itself,” said IP/MPLS Forum Chairman and President Andrew G. Malis.

“The Broadband Forum stood out clearly as the strongest candidate for us and today’s union will see our legacy, our expertise and our membership move into a new era – once again for the benefit of the industry we all look to serve.”

The newly combined Broadband Forum is meeting this week in Valencia, Spain. There will be three main changes to the organisation. These are:

· In the Technical Committee area, a new IP/MPLS and Core working group will be established to continue the MPLS protocol work and to address all new Core related work brought into the Forum

· In the Marketing Committee area, a new IP/MPLS focused Vice Chair will be added and new IP/MPLS Ambassadors will be available to represent the organisation via the speakers’ bureau

· A combined Board of Directors will be established to oversee the transition. George Dobrowski will continue on as President and Andrew G. Malis has been named Vice President.

The announcement comes as broadband deployment continues healthy growth around the world, despite the current economic challenges across all industry sectors. More than 410 million users now enjoy the benefits of broadband and the union of the two organisations will only help sustain this momentum, as well as open up new opportunities.

“As well as strengthening our global stance in the standards community generally, we will have more resources, wider expertise and the ability to make rapid strides in areas such as defining seamless end-to-end specifications, fostering greater interoperability, delivering enhanced Quality of Experience measurement, enabling greater mobile backhaul capabilities and supporting residential and business services,” Dobrowski added.

“For our members, their involvement will bring them even greater membership value and they will have the opportunity to play an influential role in how the networks of the future evolve.”

China: Telecoms, mobile, broadband and forecasts

DUBLIN, IRELAND: Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "China - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts" report to its offering.

The Chinese telecommunications market is the largest in the world. With the mobile sector still expanding at over 15 percent going into 2009, and the long-awaited licensing of 3G services completed after finalising the industry restructure, the market is poised for yet another boost amongst what is hoped to be a more level playing field.

The importance of the regulatory regime must not be underestimated in a market like China, where political and commercial considerations are closely intertwined. China's telecommunications industry experienced much disruption during 2008.

In early 2008, massive snow storms, the worst in five decades, caused widespread disruption to telecom services. The snow storms killed at least 60 people and left tens of millions to experience a cold, dark Lunar New Year holiday. In excess of 33 million fixed and mobile services were cut and direct economic losses incurred as a result of the fierce snowstorms.

Then, later in the year, a major earthquake struck near the Sichuan provincial capital of Chengdu. The 7.5 magnitude quake resulted in thousands being evacuated from buildings in Beijing, some 1,500km from the epicentre. These natural disasters tested the networks of the major telcos, not to mention their disaster recovery response times.

Despite these testing events, the market continued to experience healthy growth. Not even the global financial crisis could stall the profound growth that has been the phenomenon of the China market in the last decade.

The networks withstood the onslaught of the Olympic Games and although uncomfortable under the scrutiny of the international press and the media glare due to China's strict enforcement of Internet regulations, the country's networks were robust and successfully beamed coverage of the major sporting event worldwide.

China surpassed Japan in 2004 as the market with the second most broadband lines after the US. In mid-2008 China became the largest broadband market in the world, finally passing the US. Going into 2009, China's broadband subscriber population passed the 80 million milestone. China has also become the top DSL market in the world. Despite this huge subscriber base, penetration remains comparatively low, meaning there is still much room for growth.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Huawei beats Alcatel-Lucent in 1Q09 to top optical networking market

UK: Ovum announced its preliminary 1Q09 results for global optical equipment networking vendors. The global optical networking (ON) market, led by strength in Asia-Pacific markets, was $3.6 billion, down 15 percent sequentially and down 8 percent compared with 1Q08.

"This marks the second time in two quarters that the ON market has shrunk compared with the year-ago quarter, but given the global financial meltdown the situation could have been much worse." remarks Ovum’s Vice President, Optical Networking, Dana Cooperson.

"Spending in Asia-Pacific was surprisingly strong. We did not see the seasonal decline we normally expect in China, for example, as the race to build 3G mobile networks and support them with transport capacity obliterated any seasonality or macroeconomic downturn factors. Huawei, posting a remarkable $790 million in revenue to lead the market for the quarter, benefited from China’s 3G race, along with teledensity growth in India, a strong and stable currency, and comparatively little exposure to the cool North American market, while Alcatel-Lucent suffered from much of the opposite," Cooperson added.

Top 10 optical networking vendor share
Of the top 10 vendors, none posted both sequential and year-over-year revenue gains, reflecting slowing spending in much of the world. Vendors who beat both the sequential and year-over-year average market declines of 15 percent and 8 percent, respectively, include Ericsson, Huawei, and NEC.

Those three vendors, plus ZTE, were the only top ten vendors that did not post revenue declines compared with 1Q08. Huawei and ZTE grew revenues by more than 40 percent and 20 percent, respectively, over 1Q08 in part due to 3G mobile-related spending in China.

"Alcatel-Lucent held on to the market lead with 21.7 percent annualized share, but Huawei picked up 1.8 percentage points to come within 3 points of the market leader at 19.1 percent share. Given the continued strength of spending in markets where Huawei is strong, its light exposure to weaker markets, and the firm’s seemingly bottomless availability of financing, this looks like a huge year for the Chinese giant.” said Cooperson.