Wireless mobile future determined by LTE

USA: As wireless mobile networks continue to grow and become more robust, the path to Long Term Evolution (LTE) remains certain with operators deploying the technology the first half of this next decade, a new Visant Strategies report finds.

“LTE for many operators, if not almost all operators, is the 4G end goal for upgrading wireless networks,” said report author Andy Fuertes of Visant Strategies.

“In the most established markets carriers are systematically deploying upgrades to HSPA or CDMA2000 and awaiting the commercial arrival of LTE, which will begin to be strongly deployed within three to five years.

“Despite announced deployment roll backs of LTE due to recent economy woes there really is no fragmentation when it comes to 4G,” Fuertes added.

“All operators, except for the comparatively few that will migrate to mobile WiMAX, will use LTE to create an OFDM-based 4G wireless network, creating unprecedented economies of scale for LTE handsets and infrastructure.”

According to the findings in “Long Term Evolution 2009: The World Role of LTE in Mobile Wireless Networks through 2015,” LTE macro base stations will account for roughly 10 percent of total deployed macro base stations by year-end 2015, with the bulk of the LTE shipments occurring between 2012 and 2015. Also, over 60 million LTE femtocells will be shipped in 2015, with the Asia-Pacific market accounting for a good percentage of these shipments.

“LTE really is the Hollywood ending to real 4G,” said Larry Swasey of Visant Strategies. “While there will be a continued use of GSM and EDGE Evolution in lower-tier mobile markets and WCDMA and CDMA EV-DO throughout the world, when it comes to real 4G, LTE will eventually account for over 90 percent of global subscribers.”

The study evaluates LTE-based services, devices, selling points and infrastructure on a world-by-region basis through 2015. Annual world and regional shipments for LTE handsets, base stations and femtocells are given as are LTE subscribers, revenues, average revenue per unit, handset ASPs and LTE femtocell subscribers and revenues.

GSM/3G market update May 2009: GSA

UK: Key kacts from May 2009 GSM/3G market update, provided by theGlobal mobile Suppliers Association (GSA)!

Network commitments, deployments, launches
· 3G/WCDMA: 284 operators launched in 120 countries
· WCDMA has more than 72.8 percent market share of 390 commercially launched 3G networks
· 94 percent of commercial WCDMA operators have launched HSPA
· 306 HSPA network commitments in 126 countries
· 267 3G/HSDPA operators launched in 114 countries
· 125 HSDPA networks launched in Europe including in all 27 Member States of the European Union
· 196 HSDPA networks have launched 3.6 Mbps (peak) downlink service or higher = over 73 percent of commercial HSDPA operators, thus establishing the baseline for mobile broadband services
· 105 commercial HSDPA networks, i.e. over 39 percent, support 7.2 Mbps (peak) or higher
· 72 HSUPA networks launched in 42 countries, plus another 14 network commitments/deployments
· 10 commercial UMTS900 (i.e. WCDMA-HSPA operating at 900 MHz) networks launched, in Europe, APAC and Latin America
· 4 HSPA+ networks have launched commercial service (21 Mbps downlink peak)
· At least 25 additional HSPA+ operator commitments worldwide
· 31 LTE network operator commitments worldwide
· Up to 12 LTE networks are expected to enter commercial service by end 2010
· 441 GSM/EDGE network commitments in 184 countries; 413 networks launched in 177 countries
· Over 80 percent of commercial GPRS operators globally have committed to EDGE
· 172 of 267 commercially launched HSDPA operators (over 64 percent) also launched EDGE

User devices
· 1,470 HSDPA devices launched by 171 suppliers
· 944 devices support 3.6 Mbps peak or higher (excluding notebooks)
· 514 devices support 7.2 Mbps peak or higher (excluding notebooks)
· 260 HSUPA devices launched (compared to 75 in July 2008) (excl. notebooks)
· 1,068 HSPA devices (over 93 percent) operate in 2100 MHz band (excl. notebooks)
· 512 HSPA devices (over 44 percent) operate in 850 MHz band (excl. notebooks)
· 365 tri-band HSPA devices 850/1900/2100 MHz (excl. notebooks)
· 130 HSPA devices operate in 900 MHz band (UMTS900) (excl. notebooks)
· 212 HSPA phones (including smartphones) incorporate 802.11 WiFi
· 248 HSPA phones (including smartphones) incorporate GPS/positioning functionality
· Over 83 percent of HSDPA devices also support GSM/EDGE

Subscriptions
· 3.72 billion GSM, WCDMA-HSPA subscriptions (Q1 09)
· GSM/WCDMA has 89.4 percent worldwide market share
· Over 329 million WCDMA subs including HSPA worldwide (Q1 09)
· WCDMA now has 8% share of global mobile subscriptions
· 103.8 million HSPA subscriptions (Q4 08) included in the WCDMA subs total
· WCDMA has over 72.3 percent market share of global 3G subscriptions
· APAC has almost 1.6 billion GSM, WCDMA-HSPA subscriptions (Q1 09)
· The BRIC countries –- Brazil, Russia, India, and China together account for over 1.25 billion GSM Subscriptions (Q1 09)
· China and India have a combined total of 907.3 million GSM subs (Q1 09)
· India is estimated to have passed 300 million GSM subs during May 2009
· Western Europe has 576 million GSM, WCDMA-HSPA subscriptions (Q1 09)
· The Western Hemisphere exceeds 554 million GSM, WCDMA-HSPA subscriptions (Q1 09)
· MEA has 541 million GSM subscribers (Q1 09)
· GSA estimates that there are approaching 2 billion GSM, WCDMA and HSPA subscriptions in commercial HSPA-enabled networks worldwide.

Shipment of Taiwan's basic/feature phones exceeds forecasts in 1Q '09

TAIPEI, TAIWAN: According to research of the Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) conducted as part of the ITIS project, shipment volume of the Taiwanese basic/feature phone industry in the first quarter of 2009 is estimated at 10.21 million units.

Even though shipment volume declined sequentially in the first quarter, it was still higher than the 9.42 million units originally forecast. Taiwanese shipment volume did not experience the steep declines which were forecast, and instead rebounded somewhat.

This also caused supply of upstream basic/feature phone component manufacturers to become tight. Meanwhile, ASP (Average Selling Price) of the Taiwanese industry increased from US$43 in the fourth quarter of 2008 to US$45 in the first quarter of 2009. This was caused by the increasing shipment share of EDGE (Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution) products and the fact that some ultra value-line models reached EOL (End of Life).

In the first quarter the Taiwanese basic/feature phone industry obtained rush orders, with companies such as CCI and Arima receiving orders from emerging markets including China, Brazil, Russia and India.

According to MIC Industry Analyst Eddie Tsai: "At the end of November 2008, international vendors significantly reduced orders for the Taiwanese industry, causing a large-scale decline of Taiwanese basic/feature phone shipments; at the beginning of 2009. However, international vendors discovered that channel inventories started to decline. They released orders to their Taiwanese production partners to replenish inventories."

Regarding different system technologies, the EDGE shipment share in the first quarter increased to 5.4 percent as Motorola gradually focused on EDGE in new basic/feature phone outsourcing. As for CDMA products, due to weakening demand, Nokia became more conservative in outsourcing products, causing the CDMA shipment share in Taiwan's
industry to fall 3.5 percentage points to 13.5 percent in the first quarter.

This CDMA decline was not related to the fact that Foxconn previously lost some Nokia engine board orders. WCDMA shipment share fell to 0.4 percent in the first quarter as some Qisda WCDMA models reached EOL. The GSM/GPRS shipment share increased slightly in the first quarter as the CDMA shipment share declined.