Top 10 telecom predictions for 2009: Deloitte

Deloitte recently came out with its TMT (telecom, media and technology) predictions for 2009. Here are some bits from the telecom predictions for 2009. May I also take this opportunity to thank V. Srikumar, partner, Deloitte Haskins & Sells, for sharing this study. Thank you, sir!

1. Smart phones: how to stay clever in the downturn.
Mobile phone manufacturers should focus on developing smart phones features consumers want to use and are willing to pay for. They should work closely with operators to create easy-to-use services based on specific functionality that users value, says Deloitte. Smart phone manufacturers could also consider selling devices as price-competitive replacements for laptops. For some workers a smart phone may address all their communications, connectivity and applications requirements.

2. Data ascends from the basement to the boardroom.
Indeed! Data on customer information has been residing with telcos since ages. It is time now for the telcos to recognize that the data or information assets could become as significant to value creation as physical assets. Deloitte recommends that this customer information be integrated, and not appended or archived. It suggests that telcos should consider how to structure their activities to utilize their full spectrum of information. Having a CIO on the top management team and further, implementing a data governance framework, may become essential.

3. Digital communication loses its message.
In 2009, employees are likely to communicate digitally with each other in more ways, and in greater volumes, than ever before, says Deloitte. However, email may become obscure. The success of instant messaging was based on its greater immediacy and lesser formality. Growth of services like text messaging, has been driven by similar benefits. Companies should consider discouraging email for one day a week. Even not making indiscriminate use of the ‘reply-all’ function could save them time and money. Also, social networks may find that the best approach is to offer ‘white-label’ solutions to corporations, advises Deloitte.

4. The joys of disintermediation: why operators should embrace the application store.
According to Deloitte, in 2009, mobile phone users are likely to download over 10 billion applications to their mobile phones. A majority of applications are likely to be sourced from sites managed by mobile device manufacturers, consumer electronics firms and software houses. Although some operators may launch their own application stores38, the majority are likely to see no alternative to allowing their customers to access third parties’ stores. As the consumer awareness of mobile applications increases, the number of voice subscribers that add data subscriptions may well rise, boosting revenues. Applications could be used to drive operator loyalty and reduce retention costs.

5. Integration unleashes mobile phone convergence, finally.
Deloitte advises that while mobile handset manufacturers are getting better at convergence, they would still need to proceed with care. They should not assume that the mere addition of more features would guarantee success. Operators should study the consumers’ use of converged products in detail. It may help them identify revenue opportunities relating to converged functionality. The mobile phone may soon come to be regarded as the most successful converged product of all time.

6. Farewell mobile phone, welcome the wireless device.
All players in the mobile industry should understand how they are affected, for better or worse, by the emergence of the low-cost, multiple-standard chipset. The business case for the integration of wireless technology into a range of devices may be stronger. Mobile operators should consider their positioning -- whether to remain focused on the provision of long-range cellular mobile standards, or to become the aggregators of multiple wireless standards. Similarly, companies in other sectors should consider what low-cost integrated chipsets could enable.

7. The mobile broadband accident in slow motion.
As per Deloitte's study, data now exceeds voice volume on some mobile networks68, and with data traffic growing by several hundred percent on others, the cost of carrying data traffic could rapidly erode margins. Where possible, operators should try to divert heavy data traffic from cellular networks, and route it via other networks, such as WiFi-hotspots or home-broadband connections, at structured data tariffs. The operators need to focus marketing attention on managing customer expectations. They should examine the business model for mobile broadband carefully as well. With PC manufacturers increasingly integrating mobile broadband connectivity into their devices, diversification may soon be necessary.

8. The third screen goes dark: mobile television loses its reception
Deloite's study points out that everyone involved in the mobile TV industry -- an operator, a handset developer or a creative -- should take a long, hard, look at the demand for mobile television so far. The downturn could be a perfect opportunity to call time on a format that has too many fundamental challenges to work. It does not mean there's no space for mobile TV! Mobile telephony could provide an efficient payment mechanism for VoD -– delivered to the home set-top box, particularly for smaller VoD players. They can also be used to control the DVR. TV broadcasters can use mobile as part of their CRM strategies. Lots can be done, actually!

9. One for all and all for one: fiber networks change the shape of competition.
Shared ownership may reduce fiber's cost and risk, but may also require a new, unfamiliar approach to competition. Telcos and other companies should determine which skills they may need to hire to be able to compete on basis of services, or service levels, alone. Also, fiber-to-the-node (FTTN) or street-side cabinets may provide more than enough capacity for consumer and small business broadband, at a quarter of the cost of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH). Further, governments should complement their commitment to fiber deployment with campaigns to encourage adoption.

10. Mobile termination rates in Europe: a cut too far or a cut too fast?
Mobile operators in Europe, especially, have acknowledged that mobile termination rates (MTRs) must decline. However, 2009 is likely to see them push for a less drastic descent than the EC proposes. Consumer groups should monitor progress very carefully. Operators' knee-jerk reactions to sudden cuts could disadvantage millions of consumers, particularly those on low incomes. It may be better to call for a more moderate approach, from both operators and regulators. The local regulators should consider developing MTR glide paths that respect operators’ costs and market conditions.

Convergence driving technology trends, says Sasken chief

Sasken Technolgies was earlier known as SAS and it was focusing on product development. Later, it moved on to services. Speaking about this shift, Rajiv C. Mody, chairman and CEO, said that Sasken has always been, from day one, working on both simultaneously.

Sasken initially started out in the EDA space and had one product in the simulation space. It was writing a simulator, addressing large complex designs and methods to simplify the designs. Simultaneously, Sasken was also doing a lot of services for large telecom companies in the areas of designing. This was continued and eventually, Sasken expanded in the area of telecommunications.

Subsequently, Sasken started building products in the telecom space. However, one significant difference is that anything that it does, it impacts Sasken's customers' top line as Sasken address the R&D side of the business.

Not so long back, Sasken were also a VLSI player. It decided to disband the design tool part of the business and focus completely on communications. Now, Sasken does a lot of business in chip design, which is part of VLSI. Today, it is among the leading providers of semiconductor design, working on all kinds of complex system-on-chip (SoC), as well as 65nm design.

Sasken has filed for 39 patents so far, of which 16 have been granted. Those remaining are in the process, and typically, once a patent has been applied for, it takes four years before being granted.

It has invested close to Rs 40 crore in R&D in 2007. In the first two quarters of this financial year, it has invested about Rs 15 corers in R&D. Sasken focuses on next-generation technologies, which would shape up the way things are to come in this new, converged world.

Mody said: "The fundamental thing driving this entire change is convergence -- essentially entertainment, media, news, information -- all of it being available at push medium as well as pull medium. Wireless is also playing a very significant role."

All of these combinations are creating newer opportunities - starting with, say, for example, in the service provider-side, new billing methods have to be put in place because it's going to be triple- and quad-play kinds of situations.

Simultaneously, on the handset side, with more and more computing power being made available, newer kinds of applications have started playing significant role. As a result, Sasken is now scanning the entire gamut to position itself and take advantage.

Sasken will continue to invest in products in the mobile handset space. It also has a significant role to play on the multimedia and the application frameworks. Mody added: "To give you an idea, for the mobile handset, direct broadcast is going to play a significant role. People are already talking about high definition (HD) on mobile. You will see all those kinds of interesting things coming about, and we will participate."

Sasken had also acquired a Finnish firm. This acquisition has worked extremely well and its full integration has been done. Mody said: "We have significant engagements because of our presence in Finland and the capabilities that they bring, not only with the existing, but also with the new costumer base. We are thriving and this has given us the capability to do full end-to-end handset design and testing."

RFID, biometrics convergence -- II

Continuing from the previois blog, it's a pleasure to introduce RCG, who I met with my ex-colleague Darius in Hong Kong, late 2006. We were very impressed with RCG's capabilities. I'd like to put down here what I saw that day (and wish my friend to update me later).

Based in Hong Kong's Cyberport, RC Group (Holdings) Ltd is developing, producing and distributing state-of-the-art biometrics and RFID software through hardware and system integration. A leader in Asia Pacific region, RCG has plans for aggressive global expansion with its all-in-one biometrics and RFID applications.

RCG is offering the i4+ time and attendance system with biometric access control. It uses an ARM processor, and features high-precision fingerprint sensor and high-speed authentication processing engine. RCG developed the hardware and software for the product. It uses 13.56GHz Mi-Fare card, and supports fingerprint access and password. Current memory is 256MB, which is flexible as more RAM can be added. It supports up to 10,000 users.

RCG is offering the M29 biometric fingerprint door lock that supports 100 fingerprint enrollments. It incorporates the latest fingerprint recognition technology into the zinc-alloy doorlock. The M29 combines advanced algorithm and advanced, precise semiconductor sensor to guarantee a fast, reliable performance and good image-capturing capability.

The S903 from RCG is a biometric fingerprint access control device featuring a state-of-the-art semiconductor fingerprint sensor. It features 64MB flash memory that is expandable. It can store up to 3,000 fingerprints. RCG was scheduled to add card support by Q4-2006.

RCG's FX Guard Pro biometric access control with face-recognition technology. It has a built-in IR sensor and RFID reader is optional. It is the first facial recognition application that runs primarily on TCP/IP. It adopts RCG's ultra-fast, highly accurate facial verification engine. RCG works with a partner in Germany for facial recognition. It also offers a Mi-Fare RFID card reader or EM card. Symbol is providing RCG the RFID tags, readers and antennae.

On the RFID side, RCG is offering mobility solutions, asset management and security control, and middleware. On the mobility side, it offers inventory database control and access device, and field service solution (using Symbol’s mobile PDA with GPRS).

RCG is also offering the asset monitoring system and control solution. It uses Symbol RFID tag and program readers, uses its own middleware and provides the solution, which is essentially aimed at the SMEs. It is a partner with EPCGlobal.

RCG has been included in the list of Hong Kong’s pilot projects. It also offers middleware and does the entire RFID software for the middleware in Hong Kong. It also adopts some SOA concepts.

Commenting on the outlook for 2007, Dr. Kam Hong Shum, CTO, said that one trend would be the convergence of RFID and biometrics. Next, there would be integration of devices into ERP, HR and payroll, etc. According to him, biometrics had huge potential. For RFID, there could be more of check-and-trace solutions, ported on devices such as Wi-Fi, GPS/GPRS terminals, besides using ZigBee for location tracking.

RFID, biometrics convergence - I

This was written a little while back, when I was in Hong Kong. I am reproducing it for the benefit of readers and friends, with hopes of receiving updates regarding access control, along with biometrics and RFID.

Hong Kong's 303 Technology offers a range of products including fingerprint access control system, fingerprint attendance system, fingerprint recognition device and WebHR. These customized products find applications in offices, factories, academic and financial institutions, hospitals, and other industries.

Its VFinp is an intelligent biometric access control product that uses optical and CMOS sensors, the last one being optional. It supports multi-verification mode and allows high-speed fingerprint matching. One finger can be used to trigger off an alarm.

Suitable for time and attendance management, it has built-in 8MB memory or 2,000 fingerprint images capacity. The maximum number of event logs is 60,000. The FAR is 0.0001 percent when FRR is 1 percent. It has the TAS proprietary software built in, which has been developed and designed in Hong Kong. All coding is finished in the Shenzhen factory on the Mainland.

The company was focusing on a fingerprint scanner when I met them late 2006. It uses a multilayer PCB. 303 Technology plans to develop face-recognition technology in one to two years time. Options include proximity card module, ID card module and Mi-Fare card module, respectively. Fingerprint access will remain mainstream over the next six to 12 months.

In the non-biometric area, 303 Technology will develop a lock system for hotels. It will integrate with the hotel system for use during emergencies. The product would be launched by Q2-07. Key applications include time/attendance and access control.

It can be used in schools and libraries as well. VFinp can also be used for this application. The supplier only needs to modify software. 303 Technology is also offering the InstantPass LTP-II fingerprint and password access device. It has a bilingual LCD, and can store up to 750 fingerprint and 16,000 attendance records. It has 16 key buttons for password entry of administrator and other users.

Continues in next blog