Memories of ITU Telecom Asia

My love affair with telecom began way back in the late 1980s, when C-DoT was just getting in prominence, and there were some talks about introducing mobile phones in the country. Telecom has come a long way since.

Not many large telecom shows were held at that time, and I certainly did not get a chance to attend a real 'telecom' show till I managed to participate at the ITU's Telecom Asia in Hong Kong, only in 2000. Since then, it's been fun attending the ITU Telecom shows, be it Hong Kong or Geneva. Of course, there was CommunicAsia in neighboring Singapore, but it was always my desire to be part of an ITU show.

This year's ITU Telecom Asia will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, a really great place to visit. Here's a picture with my colleagues from Global Sources -- Alfred Cheng, John Ng and Maggie Luo -- during ITU Telecom 2006, (on my birthday, actually) at Hong Kong's sprawling AsiaWorld Expo -- the last ITU Asia show that I had the privilege of attending that chilly December.

I will always remember my first ITU show simply for the WAP (wireless access protocol) phenomena. WAP was just coming into its own during those days, and had to take a lot of flak. There used to be headlines those days, reading, "WAP IS CRAP!" Well, how wrong this turned out to be!

It was also the first show, if I remember correctly, which highlighted mobile Internet for the first time. Satellite communications was still in vogue back in those days. Well, optical networking was also quite strong, with DWDM making the rounds. I remember interviewing Corning during the show!

The Hong Kong ITU show in 2000 was the first time I had a glimpse of Huawei and ZTE close-up, although I did visit the Huawei factory in the middle of 2000, and for the first time saw what 3G base stations looked like. In fact, W-CDMA was just starting to come up. NTT DoCoMo was the hotshot back in late 2000. Its FOMA (freedom of mobile 'multimedia' access) service was just starting to roll in. Of course, those were also the days of the i-mode phones!

The Japanese have been the pioneers in mobile phones and mobile Internet, followed closely by Korea. I believe, the same year, DoCoMo had started trials with SK Telecom in Korea for W-CDMA, for the upcoming World Cup Soccer in Korea and Japan in 2002. Another delight at ITU Telecom Asia 2000 were the range of 3G phones on display, mostly by Japanese companies. Oh yes, broadband was the 'rage'.

The last ITU Telecom Asia in 2006 was vastly different. Alcatel-Lucent had a huge booth! CBoss was gaining ground as a leading billing solutions provider. Not to speak of the exquisite range of mobile phones from Japanese, Korean and Chinese vendors.

Huawei and ZTE had become really huge by the end of 2006, and had started to play a significantly major role in global telecom.

It was my pleasure to discuss the latest DECT standard with Infineon during ITU Telecom Asia 2006, I believe, it was CAT-iq (Cordless Advanced Technology - Internet and Quality). There were several GPS devices as well as booths with mobile payment solutions.

Yes, telecom has come along a very long way! This year's theme -- "New Generation, New Values," aptly sets the theme for ITU Telecom Asia. Let's see what this edition has in store!

Can Apple lead rebound in NAND fortunes?

There is an interesting piece of news on Digitimes, Taiwan, which says that Samsung has recently told its downstream customers that it will start reducing supply of NAND flash chips from July as Apple, Samsung's key customer, has placed a large batch of orders.

Will this move do anything to the NAND flash market? In the earlier blog, I had highlighted what Future Horizon's Malcolm Penn had mentioned -- that the impact of the Apple iPhone has been minimal so far on the chip market. "It's just one item in a very large and complex mix of products. The overall iPhone volume is miniscule," he says. I would probably go with that statement.

Even Semico, in its recent report, has said that the NAND market has not experienced the 'Apple effect' as has been seen in previous years, so far in 2008, despite the upcoming 3G iPhone (with up to 16GB of storage) and the SSD option for the MacBook Air.

With a majority of the analyst community yet to give the green signal about an industry revival of sorts, everything depends largely on how the new iPhone will do! However, even if it does do well, it just may not be enough!

The consumer confidence is still quite low, and rising oil prices are not really helping. Will these factors have any effect on the consumer electronics segment in the long run? Too early to say though, and do bear in mind that one product or one brand can find it a tough ask to turn around, rather, lead the memory market, and the consumer electronics industry to huge growths.

All of us in the semiconductor/chip industry keep hoping that a strong rebound does happen, and that the industry remains on course of a strong growth in 2008. However, it is not right to pin faith on one product or one brand to lead a revival.

We are probably either to hung up about numbers or about technologies. Especially, whenever a new product or technology comes around, we start banking on that product or technology to revive the industry's fortunes. Great technologies do not essentially lead to market revivals. We have seen that happen umpteen number of times.

Perhaps, it'd be wiser to let the industry have a 'free fall' or 'free growth', if you may, for some time, and let corrections happen over time, rather than bank on something or the other to carry the industry's fortunes forward.

iPhone's impact minimal on chip market

Future Horizons recently released its Global Semiconductor Monthly Report June 2008. Download the report here.

The first question on everyone's minds is: Are there finally any signs of the global semiconductor/chip industry turning around. Malcolm Penn, CEO, Future Horizons says that most of the evidence is still anecdotal. The real, clear proof will show itself in Q3-08.

There are a set of market fundamentals that are in remarkably strong form. The global economy still strong, and even showing signs of 'not getting worse' in the US. However, there is also tight fab capacity. No matter, the unit demand has been holding firm and ASPs are holding no longer in free fall.

Even the memory market has been holding up much better for now. Penn says that memory ASPs have been 'flat' for six months now. So, there has been some upward movement in ASPs. According to Penn, memories have been flat, and are no longer falling. The logic has been increasing, but micro is still falling, and the overall total ICs is trending up.

The impact of Apple's iPhone 3G has been minimal so far on the chip market. Penn says: "It's just one item in a very large and complex mix of products. The overall i-phone volume is miniscule," adds Penn.

With several advancements and announcements happening in the solar/PV segment, it may seem that the solar/PV market is taking over from where the chip market slipped. Penn says that although it certainly is a growth market for the equipment suppliers, but with still very small numbers, it cannot make up for the semicon equipment/capex slowdown.

Future Horizons had earlier forecasted 12 percent growth for the global semiconductor in 2008. With some other analysts revising forecasts, let us examine whether Future Horizons consider a revision as well.

Penn says: "If I were doing the forecast now, I'd have probably settled on 10 percent rather than 12 percent, but this is fine-tuning the maths, and not the analysis. We will not be changing our forecast at the July seminar.

"Our overall message is clear. The growth this year will NOT be 4-5 percent. I really do not care, if 10 percent rather than 12 percent is the final real number. We are not in the business of 'guessing the right number', rather, just getting the trends and analysis right."

Penny yet to drop
Finally, there is a need to take into account the falling cap ex, tight capacity, focus on profits, continuing strong market demand, second half seasonal effects, etc. The forecast tea leaves all seem to be pointing in the same positive direction. Has the worm finally turned for the industry? Future Horizons thinks so! It also believes that the penny has yet to drop and that the impact on the market will be dramatic.

Penn explains that low capex means less new capacity (12 months later). And less new capacity means tighter supply. Tighter supply means price increases and rationing.

In parallel, falling ASPs means less profits. Less profits means an unwillingness to invest. Low ASPs means a reluctance to supply. Eventually, either someone exits the business or they increase the price.

"Positive unit growth (it is, IC units are up 9.2 percent YTD on 2007) and a positive ASP growth (so far 2008 YTD the trend is still negative 3.9, but this will reduce in 2H at least to zero, my guess is slightly positive. It is already only half last year's decline) means strong value growth hence our belief growth will end up in the '10 percent' range," he adds.

WDS helps meet top needs of CIOs

Riverbed Technology recently launched a new version of its product – Riverbed RiOS 5.0. According to Apurva Dave, Director of Product Marketing, with RiOS 5.0, Riverbed enables even faster performance for enterprise applications and enhances the manageability to deliver its market-leading WDS solution.

Riverbed accelerates the access to information to improve processes and make businesses more agile. With improved network flexibility, security and ease of management for large-scale deployments, it has extended the wide-area data services (WDS) solutions leadership, and helps data and businesses move faster. Significantly, Riverbed's growth rate outpaces the industry.

Davé, said: "CIOs realize this to be an absolute part of their investment. People have seen bandwidth savings in major applications." Citing globalization as a major challenge, he added that organizations needed to solve applications performance.

Network flexibility
Riverbed provides flexibility for organizations that want to enable end-to-end transparency of WAN traffic by IP address and port or by port only. Steelhead appliances enable full IP or port-only address visibility on the WAN for optimized connections in addition to their default correct addressing mode.

The security functionality in RiOS 5.0 builds on Riverbed’s extensive work in building solutions that ensure the security and integrity of enterprise data. With RiOS 5.0, Riverbed has enhanced the implementation of SSL acceleration, with new functionality for ease-of-setup and management. The QoS capability provides granularity, as well as simplified management for complex environments.

The company's Steelhead products accelerate applications to branch offices and mobile workers. Apparently, Steelhead products cut bandwidth usage by 60-95 percent.

Meeting top CIO priorities for 2008
CIOs are said to trying to design around four principles -- to support an agile enterprise. These are -- flexibility, simplicity, continuity and security. So what are the top priorities for CIOs in 2008? As per a December 2007 Goldman Sachs CIO Survey, the top 20 priorities for CIOs are:

1. Business intelligence; 2. Application integration; 3. ERP software; 4. BPM/workflow software; 5. Security; 6. Storage hardware (disk arrays, appliances, etc.); 7. DR/BCP; 8. Server virtualization; 9. Server consolidation; 10. Data center consolidation; 11. Web application development, including portals; 12. Wireless networking; 13. Mobile computing/remote access; 14. Compliance/risk management; 15. WAN optimization; 16. Storage management software (including backup); 17. SOA; 18. Cost cutting; 19. CRM software; 20. Thin client computing.

And where does WDS fit in with CIO priorities? In all of them, barring All of them, except nos. BI, BPM/workflow software, storage hardware and storage management software! WDS is based on accelerating the enterprise applications!

The Riverbed Optimization System takes care of data streamlining -- optimize WAN bandwidth utilization, prioritize applications' bandwidth use, and accelerate large-scale disaster recovery jobs; transport streamlining -- eliminate transport protocol inefficiencies, support secure traffic acceleration (SSL); application streamlining -- optimize application WAN performance and reduce protocol chatiness; and management streamlining -- enable transparent deployment, provide additional best-of-breed services, and facilitate central management and reporting.

The enterprise can eliminate bandwidth constraints. In fact, it can enjoy up to 5x more bandwidth without additional network costs. Applications can be accelerated over the WAN to mobile users or branch offices up to 100x times faster. Make it simple to deploy and manage 15 minutes for basic deployment enable consolidation. WDS is said to have a tangible, fast payback. An IDC study finds 7.3 month payback for Riverbed implementations.

Top features in RiOS 5.0
Riverbed's RiOS 5.0 delivers choice for enterprises through market-leading features. Two very significant features are accelerating Exchange and the RiOS Services Platform (RSP).

In RiOS 5.0, only one module may be run in the RSP, and not all services may be currently available. The RSP runs in a protected zone and does not impact the resource allocations dedicated to maintain peak Steelhead operations.

Dave elaborated: "We have created an area on our software where users can deploy best-of-breed services. In the first release, we will allow only one among print services, streaming media and networking (DNS/DHCP). In the next phase, we will enable a broad range of services." Enterprises can therefore leverage the WDS footprint further and also use best-of-breed services from other vendors.

Riverbed has also been very focused on Web based applications. He added: "We have introduced new features that are Web applications. In rel 5.0, we have added three applications/features."

Apple shocks industry with PA Semi buy!

According to The Unofficial Apple Web Blog (TUAW), Apple has stunned the industry by acquiring P.A. Semi, a Santa Clara based chip company founded by Dan Dobberpuhl, the former lead designer of the DEC Alpha and StrongARM processors, for US $278 million.

The Computerworld Blog reported that Apple had 'shocked' everyone with this move. P.A. Semi is a fabless chip designer that specializes in super low power PowerPC processors.

This move surely raises questions about Apple's future association with Intel, which has been courting Apple since long to adopt its Atom low-power processor family. It also remains to be seen whether Apple will use these super low power PowerPC processors in embedded devices, such as high end iPhones, iPods, etc.

Interestingly, the PA Semi Web site is displaying a message: This account has surpassed its bandwidth allocation at the present time. You may reach the account administrator. Maybe, too many folks are trying to access the site to find out more about this company.

The Apple buyout of PA Semi was possibly first reported by Forbes. Since then a whole lot of articles have appeared on the Web.

According to the site, Apple spokesman Steve Dowling reportedly said, "Apple buys smaller technology companies from time to time, and we generally do not comment on our purposes and plans." He is also said to have declined to comment on the value of the deal, which a person familiar with the deal suggested was done for $278 million in cash.

Apple later announced its quarterly earnings Wednesday. As per Apple's financial results for fiscal 2008 second quarter ended March 29, 2008, the company posted $7.51 billion revenue and net quarterly profit of $1.05 billion, or $1.16 per diluted share.

These results compare to revenue of $5.26 billion and net quarterly profit of $770 million, or $.87 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 32.9 percent, down from 35.1 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 44 percent of the quarter's revenue.

Apple shipped 2,289,000 Macintosh computers during the quarter, representing 51 percent unit growth and 54 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. It sold 10,644,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 1 percent unit growth and 8 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone sales were 1,703,000.

As per another Forbes reports, Apple has promised to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008 on a call with analysts Wednesday. Watch this space, as Apple is surely going to be in news for most of this year.

MHEG-5 headed for India

MHEG-5 is an open standard middleware solution, an application program interface (API), designed specifically for low-cost memory constrained devices -- particularly suitable for digital interactive TV (iTV) services and is platform agnostic. Simply put, MHEG-5 is a simple object-orientated programming language.

MHEG-5 was initially adopted in 1998 by ONDigital in the United Kingdom (rebranded as ITV Digital) for use in the world’s first pay-TV digital terrestrial television (DTT) network. ONDigital lead the industry wide specification and development task of the first MHEG-5 profile, which subsequently (after the collapse of ITVDigital) formed the basis for deployment of interactive services on the UK DTT platform (Freeview).

Developed by the ISO-MHEG group and DAVIC in 1995, it is intended as a UI for DAVIC interactive services and VOD. MHEG-5 has been standardized in ISO 13522-5 and adopted by the UK DTG in 1997.

Going by its history on IMPALA (The International MHEG Promotion Alliance), MHEG (Multimedia and Hypermedia information coding Expert Group) originally developed and standardized by Working Group 12 (WG12) of the ISO -- officially known as ISO/IEC JTC1/SC29/WG12. It was developed in the mid 1990s as part of the DAVIC (Digital Audio Video Council) standardization effort to support interactivity and navigation of multimedia services on various small footprint devices.

WG12 issued a suite of documents (MHEG parts 1-8) as part of MHEG standard covering extensions for scripting language (MHEG-6), testing and interoperability (MHEG-7) and support for encodings in XML format (MHEG-8). Part 5 of the standard, officially known an ISO/IEC 13522-5, or more commonly know as MHEG-5 that is of primary relevance to interactive DTV.

So what's hot about MHEG-5? Well, the standard's profile evolved to UK Profile 1.06 (current); ETSI standard ES 202184. And now, new international profiles extend the UK profile. These include: New Zealand -- extra Maori characters and EPG key; Hong Kong -- Traditional Chinese font; Singapore/China - simplified Chinese font. Certain other extensions are said to be under development within DTG for possible deployment in 2008. These include IP interaction channel (return path), improved graphics, HD compatibility and support, and PVR support.

Heading for India?
What's more significant is that MHEG-5 is said to be launching in India and in Hong Kong in 2008! Trials and evaluations are reportedly ongoing in Ireland, Malaysia, Singapore, Turkey, India and Russia. There is said to be interest from other countries in Europe and Asia as well.

MHEG-5 has no known essential IPR. The MHEG middleware software is typically less than US$1 per receiver. It has had wide integration into iDTVs in Europe. Finally, MHEG is proposed as the UI for new Common Interface spec (CI+), as well.

I hope to be speaking with IMPALA sometime soon about its plans for India and update you appropriately!

NXP India achieves RF CMOS in single chip

NXP Semiconductors India has developed the PNX4902, an ultra low-cost GSM/GPRS single chip, which was announced this February. The highlight -- the entire analog and RF work done has been in Bangalore! You might wonder what's so unique about this!

Well, let's start with what is tough about RF CMOS in single chip! CMOS is primarily a digital process. The analog circuit design in CMOS is tough, and the RF circuit design in CMOS is even tougher. Now, the co-existence of RF CMOS circuits with noisy digital in a single chip was (and is) considered the holy grail of chip design.

Next, cellular standards (such as GSM, EDGE) and specs are much tougher than other comparable standards like FM, Bluetooth, etc. Also, some key cellular parameters like RX sensitivity become tougher for single chips aimed at emerging markets. Especially, we all know that base stations are sparse in rural areas. Taking all of these as a whole -- RF design in presence of digital noise is the biggest challenge in a single chip!

Factors enabling single chip design
There are said to be three factors. One, RF CMOS is the high quality analog/RF design in CMOS. The high-performance RF blocks like LNA, mixers, etc., used to be the domain of BiCMOS, a higher cost technology. Next, fine-line CMOS (0.18mm and lower) provide high fT and lower noise.

Two, there are new architectures that minimize analog signal processing. Chip designers to convert the analog signal to digital -- so they might as well do it early -- analog-to-digital conversion at the IF, instead of at DC. There's also a need to move the final down-conversion and filtering into digital domain.

Three, the use of DSP to calibrate the analog performance. Things like temperature and process sensitivities in analog circuits need adjustments. Also, the digital engines can provide the ability to 'lock-in' the performance. Finally, a strong 'engineering culture' is a MUST to execute on complex chips.

Factors enabling AeroFone single chip design
NXP had acquired Silicon Labs Wireless group in 2007. Silicon Labs was a leader in RF CMOS, and so it also acquired numerous patents and trade secrets. Trade secrets for integration of RF CMOS circuits with noisy digital provide an edge over competitors as the integration intensifies.

Thereafter, NXP went on to form the NXP India single-chip design team. As single chip products are designed for emerging economies, NXP India invested heavily to develop the design expertise in Bangalore. The seed group of chip leads and system leads relocated from USA to India to start an analog/RF competency center for developing highly integrated chips.

The NXP India single chip design team has the vision to be the best center of competence in architecture and design of highly integrated circuits (ICs) for emerging market products. It is building the best analog/RF group in India.